Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
Mexico's July commercial activity was resilient but slowing: wholesale revenues +6.4% y/y and retail +1.8% y/y in real terms. Wholesale wages +5.2%, retail wages +8.3%. Sector detail was mixed: machinery/equipment +9.3% and raw materials +7.7% led wholesale,…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…
Natixis argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a hesitant communicator who avoids forward guidance, has signaled his preferred gauges: inflation breadth, broad financial conditions and alternative underlying-inflation measures such as trimmed mean and median.…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
Peru's economy grew 3.6% y/y in July, above consensus and Scotiabank's 3.3% estimate, with 3.3% cumulative growth over 12 months. Non-primary sectors tied to domestic demand expanded nearly 5%, contributing 3.8 p.p., offsetting a ~1% contraction in primary…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
In August 2026, EM debt proved resilient. Hard currency sovereigns returned +0.89% (JP Morgan EMBI GD), led by spread tightening of 10bps to ~235bps, as Treasury yields steadied at 4.75% on the 10-year. Local currency debt returned +0.90% (GBI-EM GD), driven…
Emerging market hard currency bonds outperformed in August 2026, with shorter-maturity bonds leading year-to-date as higher US Treasury term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks under pressure long duration. The 10-year US Treasury ended at 4.75%,…
Short-dated EM hard currency bonds outperformed longer-dated paper over the first eight months of 2026, as rising US 10-year Treasury yields, higher term premia, fiscal concerns and hawkish Fed remarks tested duration. EM hard currency spreads stayed firm,…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
Mexico's 2027 Economic Package keeps gradual fiscal consolidation, cutting Public Sector Borrowing Requirements to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026, while public debt-to-GDP still rises. Revenues are projected at MXN 9,156.5bn. The Finance Ministry's macro…
Natixis expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate to a 4.0% upper bound at the September 2026 meeting, the first hike in three years and the first under Chair Warsh. August core CPI came in above expectations on one-off factors, cementing hike expectations. A…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
The ECB raised its main policy rate 25bp to 2.5% and revised up growth and inflation forecasts, with inflation seen peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026; markets priced half a hike in October and more than three additional hikes by mid-2027, a hawkish read despite no…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Contributors Juan Manuel Herrera, Director +52.55.2299.6675 (Mexico) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com THIS WEEK ’S CONTRIBUTORS: Rodolfo Mitchell, Director of Economic and Sectoral Analysis +52.55.3977.4556 (Mexico)…
Peru's central bank (BCRP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% for a twelfth straight month in September 2026, matching Scotia and Bloomberg consensus expectations, but shifted to a slightly more hawkish statement by signaling possible adjustments in the…