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MUFG reports the PBOC formally rejected claims that the yuan is undervalued ahead of China-EU trade negotiations, arguing devaluation will not resolve global structural imbalances and pushing back on the IMF. US Treasuries rallied on solid 30-year auction…
Oil retreated after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before November midterms; Brent traded below USD 103/b and WTI near USD 90/b. Gold advanced toward USD 4,200/oz as lower Treasury yields supported demand, with 10-year breakevens near flat.…
Peru's central bank unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25% for a 13th straight month, contrary to market consensus favoring a hike. Chile's September CPI rose 0.4% m/m, keeping annual inflation at 4.1%, while Mexico's headline inflation edged up to 3.45%…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
MUFG stays selectively cautious on Asian FX as the US dollar firms. DXY rose around 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.3%, about 112bp above its start-of-year level. FOMC minutes showed all 19 officials backed September's 25bp hike and most saw…
Oil rose 2% on reports the US could resume strikes on Iran before mid-term elections, with Brent above $102.30/bbl and WTI near $90/bbl. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf increased, and a tanker was stuck north of Qatar. EIA reported a…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike in four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, ruling out near-term cuts. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up to 7.1% and 5.2%. ING expects a gradual cycle with 50bp more…
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
MUFG expects the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, but views the pause as temporary. Higher oil prices, weather-related risks and resilient domestic demand keep upside inflation pressures elevated into 2027. MUFG forecasts two 25bp hikes in…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50% and shifted to "calibrated tightening", but MUFG judges the move not hawkish enough to justify current INR front-end pricing (1y OIS 6.26%, 2y 6.45%). MUFG forecasts one more hike to 5.75% by Feb 2027, with risk of…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…