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Natixis argues Germany's 2026 collective bargaining round should not trigger euro-area second-round effects. Nominal wage growth is forecast to slow to about 3.8% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 from 4.4% in 2025, with negotiated wages at 2.6% YoY in June 2026 and…
Global bonds extended their slide, with the US 10-year yield at 5.1142% and the 30-year near 5.4%, pressuring US equities. Robust US September PMIs (manufacturing 57, services 58.7) reinforced growth expectations. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would stay…
Indian equities are a core holding with earnings growth re-accelerating to about 14-16% in 2026-27 from below 10% in 2025, and valuations back near long-term averages. But they are not an AI growth story like Korea or Taiwan, whose earnings trajectory is far…
The dollar rally looks stretched after DXY broke above 101.0 on strong US PMIs, higher oil and soft risk sentiment; absent upside US data surprises, ING expects a correction toward 100-100.5. EUR/USD's break below 1.140 is stretched undervaluation, with…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, with services at 58.7 and manufacturing at 57.0, prompting a sharp sell-off in Treasuries. The 10-year yield closed above 5.11%, a post-GFC high, and the 2-year reached 4.89%. Equities fell, the dollar…
MUFG flags elevated USD/JPY volatility over Japan's autumn holidays after the BOJ hiked to 1.25% with two dissents while the Fed delivered a unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The pair pushed above 157.50; MUFG's forecast range is 155.00-159.00, with…
Global bonds extended their selloff, lifting the US 10-year yield to 5.1142% and the 30-year to near 5.4%, with European curves also higher. Strong September flash PMIs and a weak USD70bn 5-year auction reinforced rate-hike expectations. US equities fell (S&P…
Global nominal growth has accelerated to 5%-6%, its strongest in 20 years, as loose policy and AI capex offset an energy shock. Wellington's base case sees growth slowing but holding at or above trend, with the shock cutting 1.5-2 percentage points. The…
Strong US PMIs and rising oil prices deepened the Treasury selloff, lifting 2-year yields 14bp to about 4.9% and the 10-year above 5.0%. Markets price roughly 37bp of additional Fed tightening by December 2026. The DXY rose 0.5%, pressuring most Asian…
MUFG's Middle East Daily reports Brent pulling back toward USD 102/b and WTI near USD 91/b after a 4% surge, as continued Strait of Hormuz transits (up to 17mb/d per US Treasury Secretary Bessent) and a gradually restarting Saudi East-West pipeline ease…
The JSDA's August 2026 investor-category data show city banks swung to heavy net buying of medium-term JGBs (JPY1,210.9bn) as the 10-year yield rose to 2.940%, while non-residents sold medium-term paper for a third month (JPY1,045.3bn). Foreigners turned net…
Rising oil prices, strong US PMI data, hawkish Fed Governor Barr comments and weak demand at a five-year Treasury auction pushed the US 10-year yield back above 5.0%, pressuring global equities and lifting the dollar. Brent rose 4.2% to US$103/bbl after…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…
Invesco's QQI tracks the Nasdaq International Innovators 100 Index, which screens non-US large and mid-caps on innovation inputs and outcomes rather than past growth. Index constituents average roughly 13% of sales on R&D versus 5% for MSCI ACWI ex USA and…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
Policymakers appear to be trying to contain 30-year Treasury volatility through buybacks, support for the yen, a more credible hawkish Fed and active curve management. But none of this removes the fiscal deficit, heavy Treasury issuance or AI-driven corporate…