JSDA bond transaction data by investor category (August 2026)【 Fixed Income Commentary 】

中文标题

JSDA债券交易数据（按投资者类别）（2026年8月）·【固定收益评论】

MUFG09/24/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The JSDA's August 2026 investor-category data show city banks swung to heavy net buying of medium-term JGBs (JPY1,210.9bn) as the 10-year yield rose to 2.940%, while non-residents sold medium-term paper for a third month (JPY1,045.3bn). Foreigners turned net buyers of long-term and super-long JGBs, and life and non-life insurers bought super-longs for a third month, reflecting dip-buying and flattener demand.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 09/24/2026
Research topic: US Dollar (DXY) · US 10Y Treasury · US 2Y Treasury
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

US Dollar (DXY) · DXY US 10Y Treasury · US10Y US 2Y Treasury · US2Y

Key arguments

City banks increased net purchases of medium-term JGBs sharply to JPY1,210.9bn, the first above JPY1tn since July 2025, as terminal rate expectations approached 2.5%.
Non-residents were net sellers of medium-term JGBs for a third month and turned net buyers of long-term and super-long JGBs, consistent with flattener trades on faster rate-hike expectations.
Life and non-life insurers bought super-long JGBs for a third month, but gross super-long trading fell below the FY25 average, suggesting cautious dip-buying.
Shinkin banks sold super-long JGBs by a record JPY250.3bn since March 2013, potentially unwinding asset swaps and realising valuation losses.

Key numbers

10-year JGB yield (end-August): 2.940%
City banks net purchases of medium-term JGBs: JPY1,210.9bn
Non-residents net sales of medium-term JGBs: JPY1,045.3bn
Non-residents net purchases of long-term JGBs: JPY653.9bn
Insurers net purchases of super-long JGBs: JPY300.3bn

Main risks

The data do not capture flows from investors directly participating in BoJ bond-buying operations or MoF auctions, so they should not be considered conclusive.
Expectations of faster BoJ rate hikes could reverse if US pressure or inflation data shift, altering investor demand for JGBs.
Tightening super-long asset swap spreads may prompt further unwinding by shinkin banks and other investors, adding selling pressure.

Corresponding source evidence

This drove the dollar lower against the yen and briefly pushed down the 10-year JGB yield, but the move was short-lived.
Remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on an August 4 CNBC broadcast—including his comment that he believed BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda would “do what is needed”—prompted speculation that the US government was pressing the Bank to raise rates sooner.
The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate climbed to around 2.3%, approaching the 2.5% level that marks the upper end of BoJ estimates of the neutral rate of interest.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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