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MUFG notes the euro is stabilising after sliding from 1.1600 to 1.1200 on higher global yields, French fiscal concerns before April/May presidential elections and a terms-of-trade hit from refined energy prices. German GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.3%…
ING expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten policy modestly, lifting the SGD NEER band slope to about 1.5% annual appreciation, alongside robust third-quarter GDP. India's CPI is seen accelerating sharply to 5.4% on food and fuel. China's CPI…
India's transformation continues as government incentives and global partnerships expand local manufacturing and exports, notably in semiconductors and defence. Rising incomes are shifting consumption from essentials to extras and from basic to premium,…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike in four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, ruling out near-term cuts. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up to 7.1% and 5.2%. ING expects a gradual cycle with 50bp more…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50% and shifted to "calibrated tightening", but MUFG judges the move not hawkish enough to justify current INR front-end pricing (1y OIS 6.26%, 2y 6.45%). MUFG forecasts one more hike to 5.75% by Feb 2027, with risk of…
Treasury yields reached two-decade highs, with the 10Y at 5.31% and 30Y at 5.67%, while tech-led gains lifted the S&P 500 to near a record high. The dollar extended a three-week rally, nearing its strongest 2026 levels. Brent fell 1.9% to $100.32 after Saudi…
The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
State Street and Barclays argue that systematic credit investing was historically constrained by trading frictions, but recent market developments—growth in electronic trading, credit ETFs and portfolio trading—have reduced these barriers. The paper describes…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
The euro fell to fresh year-to-date lows against the dollar (1.1161) and yen (176.41) as fiscal contagion fears from a French government bond sell-off intensified. The 10-year French yield neared 5.0%, with its spread over Bunds above 140bps, while the 2-year…
Natixis argues China has no incentive to join any coordinated AI slowdown. US systems' share of OpenRouter tokens fell from about 70% a year ago to near 30%, so a pause would freeze a hierarchy Beijing rejects. China's cheaper power and easier grid…
The RBI is widely expected to begin tightening with a 25bp hike to 5.5%, as rising oil and food prices push CPI above target. Philippine inflation is seen rising to 6.8% YoY on fuel and El Niño food pressures. Japan's data point to weak consumption and a…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…