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Latin American equities stood out as a diversifier in Q3 2026, supported by attractive valuations and an improving policy mix, while global equities stayed resilient despite higher yields. US Q2 GDP grew 2.2% annualised, core inflation reached 3.0%, but…
EU construction output is forecast to grow just 0.5% in 2026 after 1.8% decline in 2024 and 2.3% growth in 2025, per ING Research. Infrastructure and Germany's modest rebound (first growth since 2020, after a >10% fall over 2020-25) support activity, while…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
A screen of 512 option underlyings found 21 names far from their own implied volatility norms at the 2 Oct 2026 close. Brazil ETF EWZ ranked 100 ahead of its 4 October presidential vote. US health care names (MRK, DHR, BMY) showed elevated rank into…
Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
The US rare earth supply chain remains vulnerable because its weaknesses are downstream: processing, heavy rare earth separation, and magnet manufacturing. Despite record output at Mountain Pass and some neodymium-iron-boron magnet production in Texas, the US…
A weak US September payrolls print of 29k cooled October Fed hike odds to 20%, lifting the Nasdaq 100 to a record close. The euro fell to a new cycle low of 1.1161 against the dollar, pressured by French fiscal turmoil and widening OAT-Bund spreads, which…
The euro is repricing lower on French fiscal risk, driving broad euro weakness and pushing the dollar index to new 2026 highs. The ECB's tightening cycle is seen as more vulnerable to repricing than the Fed's, leaving EUR/USD under pressure with a 1.1100/1120…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
With 10-year yields above 5% in the US and Australia, the manager argues high-quality bonds again offer income plus a hedge if synchronized tightening into an oil supply shock slows growth. It favours front-end Australian government bonds, expects RBA cuts in…
September brought a violent global bond repricing, with the US 10-year yield rising over 50bp to 5.28% and the 30-year to 5.63%, on strong US growth, an oil supply shock and a hawkish Fed hike to 4%. Equities held up at the index level (S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq…
Renewed Gulf conflict pushed oil above US$100 and drove developed-market bond yields to multi-decade highs. The Fed, ECB, RBA and BOJ all tightened as markets priced further hikes. Schroders argues elevated starting yields — portfolio yield ~6.5% — provide an…
US September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus ~90k expected, with August revised down to 133,000; unemployment edged up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% MoM (3.0% YoY). The S&P 500 gained 0.73% on Friday, led by tech, while the 10-year…
September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus 90k consensus, with unemployment at 4.2% and wage growth at 0.1% m/m, weakening the case for an October Fed hike. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded intraday from 5.15% to about 5.29% and the 2-year…
The euro fell to fresh year-to-date lows against the dollar (1.1161) and yen (176.41) as fiscal contagion fears from a French government bond sell-off intensified. The 10-year French yield neared 5.0%, with its spread over Bunds above 140bps, while the 2-year…
USD/JPY opened September at 159.77 and traded both sides of 157 as the BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the Fed raised 25bp. Washington now treats yen undervaluation as a leader-level issue, and a move above 160 would likely trigger stronger warnings and possible…
New Zealand's recovery is uneven but resilient, with filled jobs up 0.9% in the year to August and agriculture driving regional growth. Inflation pressures persist in rate-insensitive sectors; annual CPI hit 4.1% in June and fuel costs are rising again.…
BNP Paribas market review as of 2 October 2026 shows Brent at $102.25, up 68% year-to-date, and gold at $4,145, down 4.7% over the week. US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.28%, with a 1-week change of -1.2bp, while the OAT-Bund spread widened by 38.2bp. EUR/USD…
After weeks dominated by geopolitics, central bank policy has again become a decisive FX driver. Deutsche Bank expects the currently supported USD to weaken somewhat over the medium term, with the EUR helped by a restrictive ECB stance and stronger euro area…