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Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
US September headline CPI rose to 3.7% y/y versus 3.6% consensus, and core to 2.6% y/y. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked toward 4.95% before easing to 4.80%, while DXY touched 102.95, then eased to 102.50. MUFG says elevated yields and oil prices intensify…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…
September US CPI came in hotter than expected and broad-based: headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, core 0.34% m/m and 2.6% y/y, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly all-items increase. Natixis says the print revives debate for the…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
Green bonds now make up 58% of the global labeled bond universe, per State Street Investment Management. The report says green bonds typically share the same credit risk and yield profile as comparable conventional bonds from the same issuer, letting…
ING expects September US CPI at 0.7% headline and 0.3% core MoM, 0.1pp above consensus, which should reinforce the dollar's floor and support some USD re-strengthening. Markets may modestly raise October Fed hike odds, but pricing above 50% (now 20%) likely…
Brent crude trades back above USD 106 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran's tanker strikes in Hormuz. Gold holds near USD 4,160 ahead of US September CPI, with Williams signalling one more hike this year and none in 2027. Chipmakers…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…
AI hardware stocks extended losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down a sixth straight session on Chinese DRAM competition and doubts over debt-funded AI capex; CoreWeave bond yield jumped to 15% from 9.625% at issue. The IMF lifted 2026 global…
MAS sprang a surprise by leaving its exchange-rate policy stance unchanged in October, versus consensus for very slight tightening. MUFG reads the forward guidance as implying Singapore's central bank stays on hold, with the appreciating S$NEER band leaning…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
Scotiabank argues the BoC should ignore Friday's weak Canadian jobs report and stay focused on inflation, since the 70k September public-sector decline (58k health/education, 46k in Quebec) looks implausible during an election. It urges an external…
Korean chip stocks fell 6.12% overnight, breaking the Kospi below 6,000 and triggering a sell-side curb, while the S&P 500 closed virtually unchanged at 7,807.24. The divergence reflected low three-month implied correlation (11.75) and dispersion, not a broad…
Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
US-Iran conflict escalation has raised CEE inflation risk via energy, food and record shipping costs, echoing 2022. Core inflation is still stable because pass-through is slow and weak food prices delayed the shock, but base effects are fading and January…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
Asian chip stocks plunged after a Chinese memory design advance by CXMT; the Kospi fell 6.12%, triggering a sell-side curb, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit. US bank earnings and key data (US CPI, Fed speakers) loom. Oil eased to USD 105.50 after Monday's spike,…