Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
ING expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp rate hike on 16 September, framing it as a recalibration of policy rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. August payrolls beat all Bloomberg forecasts, headline CPI sits at 3.4% and core CPI ran at…
ING's James Smith argues that markets are pricing a more aggressive hiking cycle than warranted, with investors expecting four more ECB hikes, a similar path from the Bank of England, and no rate cuts for at least four years. He identifies three conditions…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
UBS CIO argues that equities can withstand rising yields and oil prices because global growth remains solid, earnings are forecast to grow strongly, and AI-related investment is a powerful tailwind. Brent crude is around USD 105.5/bbl amid Middle East…
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is on track for a fifth straight weekly gain and a record high, up about 2% on the week and over 36% year-to-date, but gains are increasingly concentrated in energy. Brent crude jumped more than 6% on Thursday after…
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
US August CPI matched consensus at 0.4% MoM/3.4% YoY, but core inflation rose 0.3% MoM (0.290% to three decimals) versus 0.2% expected, well above the 0.17% monthly pace needed to steer annual inflation toward the Fed's 2% target. With Chair Kevin Warsh…
The options market underpriced the week almost everywhere: by the final session the Nasdaq 100 fund had used 91% of its expected band, gold 99% and the bitcoin fund 97%, while the S&P 500 spent 161% and closed below its lower bound. Premium was bid for a…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…
ING expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% at its 17 September 2026 meeting with another 6-3 vote. While the gas and oil price surge means inflation could peak at or above 4% this winter — putting the UK in the Bank's adverse energy…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
The 14-18 September 2026 calendar is dominated by three G10 central bank decisions: the FOMC is expected to leave the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England is forecast to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan is expected…
Global bond yields surged on September 10, 2026, after the ECB delivered a hawkish 25-bp hike and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts, sending the German 2-year yield up 16 bp—its largest front-end jump in over 18 months—while crude oil prices spiked…
Natixis expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate unchanged at its 17 September 2026 meeting with a 6-to-3 voting split, as headline CPI rose to 2.9% on energy effects while core inflation held at 2.6% and private-sector regular pay growth cooled to 2.8%.…
The yen strengthened sharply as markets moved to fully price a Bank of Japan rate hike next week and a strong chance of another by year-end, prompting investors to avoid short-yen positions. The move lifted EUR/USD, but higher energy prices later pressured…
The Czech National Bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on 17 September, with the board comfortable that monetary conditions remain mildly restrictive. Attention is shifting to November, when a fresh staff forecast is due and headline…
Romanian headline CPI eased to 6.2% year-on-year in August 2026, reversing July's upside surprise and undershooting consensus. Softer food and non-food inflation, driven by seasonal declines in vegetables and fresh fruit and by a more-than-4% monthly fall in…