Romanian inflation not yet the time to celebrate

Key arguments

• August headline CPI at 6.2% reversed July's upside surprise and came in below expectations, helped by seasonal declines in vegetables (-7.0% MoM) and fresh fruit (-5.5% MoM) and by natural gas prices falling more than 4.0%.
• The improvement is partial: fuel prices rose more than 6.0% on the month and services inflation was broadly unchanged, showing underlying price pressures have yet to ease meaningfully.
• Wage growth picked up to 5.5% in July from 3.5% in June, taking the year-to-date average to 3.9%, but 2026 is still on track to be the weakest wage-growth year since 2010.
• The rebound in oil prices and Middle East developments should limit near-term disinflation, keeping the 6.5% year-end CPI forecast in place; a favourable scenario with rapid de-escalation and lower energy could bring inflation closer to 6.0%.
• The NBR's 6.1% projection is within reach in that favourable scenario, and the first rate cut is still expected in January 2027, though the timing and pace may be dictated by core-market yields and global financial conditions.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Lower prices for some food items and natural gas were the main drivers of disinflation.
2. We maintain our year-end CPI forecast of 6.5% Falling fruit, vegetable and natural gas prices helped ease inflation pressures in August August CPI: a welcome surprise, but with caveats Food and non-food inflation came in softer than expected, at 2.6% and 6.3%, respectively, in August.
3. Meanwhile, services inflation remained broadly unchanged, suggesting that underlying price pressures have yet to ease meaningfully.