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Natixis sees Asian growth bifurcating: China softens and drags exposed sectors, while North Asia, India and parts of ASEAN accelerate. Exports are China's key engine on a competitive real exchange rate, but ageing cuts its growth to around 1% by 2050. Japan's…
OCBC's 21 September 2026 snapshot notes the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% as markets price two more hikes by year-end despite the Fed's 25bp move. US IG and HY spreads tightened 1bp and 2bp to 75bp and 267bp; Asia HY widened 10bp to 323bp. Traders…
Romania's potential GDP growth has fallen to about 2.0% from 3.5%-3.75% before the pandemic, ING estimates, with actual GDP contracting in 2026 and growth around 2.2% in 2027-2028. A large investment cycle — public investment exceptionally high, gross fixed…
The Dutch pension overhaul removes the dynamic hedging that once made funds natural buyers of euro receiver swaps when rates rose. Hedging ratios are now preset per age cohort, and liabilities move with volatile assets. ING expects structurally lower…
France's fiscal position has deteriorated: the government now expects a 2026 deficit of 5.4% of GDP versus a 4.6% objective, and 6.5% in 2027 without new measures. Prime Minister Lecornu announced a €54bn effort to cap the 2027 deficit at 5% of GDP, but the…
Natixis reviews the end of Germany's super-election year with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MWP) and Berlin that delivered fresh defeats to the federal governing parties. Die Linke won Berlin with 25.7% while the AfD secured 38.2% in MWP, leaving…
Brent crude fell about 2% to below $102/bbl and WTI eased to around $98/bbl as profit-taking and hopes for constructive UNGA and Trump-Xi talks improved sentiment, even as Saudi Aramco warned of possible cargo allocation cuts after drone damage to the…
ING now expects the ECB and Fed to hike in December and keeps its year-end EUR/USD target at 1.160. Oil is the key FX driver this week, with Trump meeting Gulf states and Xi. USD/JPY upside risks remain, with 160.0 plausible but intervention risk elevated.…
Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
BOJ hiked rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, but markets read the meeting as dovish: no faster hike signal, two PM-aligned dissenters favouring a hold, no 50bp hike from Takata or Tamura, and Governor Ueda seeing low probability of back-to-back hikes. USD/JPY…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Fed hike pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0%, with markets pricing ~33bp more tightening by end-2026 and ~85bp by end-2027. Aussie OIS implies a 4.76% cash rate by year-end. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened on cautious Ueda guidance and two…
BNP Paribas market review (September 21, 2026) shows Brent at $104.73, up 17.1% weekly and 72.1% yearly. US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.97% while 2-year at 4.64% and 5-year at 4.79%. USD/JPY at 153.47, down 3.9% weekly. Gold at $4,363, down 1.7% weekly.…
Westpac brings forward its call for the next RBA cash rate hike to September from November, seeing scope for internal Monetary Policy Board members to muster a majority. It flags no change to the pencilled-in start of eventual cuts in August 2027, but says…
Both the Fed (25bp to 3.75%-4.00%) and the BoJ (25bp, 7-2 vote) hiked in September 2026. The Fed's unanimous move versus the BoJ's split vote may lead markets to test the BoJ's commitment, weakening the yen and steepening the JGB curve. The report sees this…
Euro area headline HICP rose to 3.2% y/y in August, the highest since September 2023, driven by a 14% energy inflation surge, while core eased to 2.4% from 2.5% as services fell to 3.0%. MUFG sees no clear second-round effects, but upside risks from gas…
Brent fell for a third session toward USD 104/b and WTI near USD 101/b as Saudi Arabia restores its damaged East-West pipeline, targeting roughly half of capacity within days, while some tanker traffic continues through Hormuz. Gold held near USD 4,350/oz…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue…