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The US Treasury curve bear-flattened as 2s10s narrowed to 19bp from 40bp; the 2-year yield rose 38bp to 4.8% while the 30-year was unchanged at 5.29%, with both real rates and inflation expectations contributing. Intesa Sanpaolo expects gradual declines over…
Commodity markets remain distorted by persistent conflicts, but fundamentals are gaining weight. Physical crude rebalancing is capping rallies, while non-OPEC supply growth and weak demand could build a surplus and pull prices lower. Europe's gas and power…
Natixis launched an anonymous two-minute survey on Brazil's October 4 general election and post-election expectations, including views on the policy outlook and the BRL. A second round would be held October 25 if no candidate wins over 50% of valid votes.…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
The S&P 500 closed effectively unchanged at 7,764.64 on Tuesday, yet beneath the surface financials had their worst session since March while semiconductors extended a six-session run. Options price this dispersion explicitly: three-month implied correlation…
Major central banks remain hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightening policy, yet financial conditions stay unusually loose. AI-related capital expenditure is the dominant growth engine, sustaining activity and market leadership. US underlying…
The eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in August, a three-year high, despite surging oil prices, low water levels and supply chain disruptions. Services drove the gain, jumping from 51.6 to 53.0, with Germany's services PMI up from…
Euro area September flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0, its highest since April 2023 and above the 51.8 consensus, led by new orders at 52.8. Manufacturing held at 52.7 and services activity climbed to a 10-month high of 53.0. Yet employment was flat…
The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
The dollar stays firm despite lower oil and risk-friendly sentiment, as hawkish Fed comments dominate. Barkin said one hike may not tame inflation; jobless claims are below 200k and ADP hiring improved. Brent slipped under $100/bbl on Iranian talks and the…
Citi argues that interoperability, not platform capability, is the binding constraint on institutional digital finance. Banks have invested over $100B in blockchain since 2020, producing parallel networks, fragmented liquidity and assets that do not move with…
US equities were mixed as financials rotated into tech, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record while the Dow fell 0.4%. WTI dropped 5.5% to USD90.52/bbl and Brent fell 1.8% to USD98.53/bbl after Iran signalled the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days…
MUFG expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate on hold, as a steadier IDR masks elevated US 10-year yields and oil near US$100/bbl. The bank flags upside risks to IDR from domestic policy uncertainty and external pressures, while highlighting strong…
Euro area September flash PMI rose to a 41-month high of 53.1, beating consensus, with manufacturing firm and services at a 10-month high. The services output price gauge climbed to 56.0, the highest since February 2024, suggesting energy-driven price…
Mixed US-Iran headlines left market pricing of geopolitical risk little changed: Trump's UN threat to "annihilate" Iran was offset by reports of "very productive" official talks. Brent fell 1.9% to US$98.5/bbl; LME copper rose 0.6% to US$14,748/mt on firmer…
Euro swap rates are not following oil lower as quickly as they rose, reflecting an asymmetric inflation-expectations impact. With Brent near recent highs, the 2Y euro swap sits about 20bp above its level when oil last traded near $100. The ECB's hawkish tone…
This Natixis report, written by Benito Berber and Selin Aker, examines Brazil's upcoming general election and its potential impact on asset prices, particularly the Brazilian Real (BRL). The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment…
The National Bank of Hungary kept its base rate at 5.50% on 22 September 2026, pausing its summer easing cycle with a hawkish tone and a new 2.5% inflation target from 2028. ING expects inflation below 3% for the rest of 2026 before some acceleration, and…
Monday's S&P 500 gain of 1.49% was carried by Meta, up 11.34%, while the 30-day index volatility measure moved only 0.41%. Single-stock implieds rose, with VXN up 5.70% to 20.39 and dispersion up 7.83% to 35.79. Correlation fell for a third session, COR3M…
Germany's fiscal plan delivers short-term stimulus without lifting potential growth: the public deficit widens from 3.0% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, peaks at 4.5% in 2027, then eases to 4.2% in 2028 as health and pension reforms tighten social security.…