FX Daily Snapshot Euro area PMI shows resilient activity and broadening price pressuresMUFG Macro

Key arguments

• September euro area composite PMI at 53.1, a 41-month high, was a notable upside surprise versus consensus for a small deterioration.
• The services output price gauge rose to 56.0, the highest since February 2024, providing survey evidence that energy price pressures may be broadening into the domestic economy.
• MUFG expects the ECB to lift the deposit rate from 2.50% to 3.00%, with an October hike in its call, though timing hinges on energy market developments.
• MUFG tracks Q3 euro area GDP growth ex-Ireland at around 0.2% Q/Q, but notes the PMI is consistent with stronger growth of about 0.4%; consumer confidence weakened in September.

Corresponding source evidence

1. European Macro │23 September 2026 FX Daily Snapshot Euro area PMI shows resilient activity and broadening price pressures 23 September 2026 The euro area PMI comfortably beat expectations in September, pointing to continued resilience in the face of higher energy prices. · September 2026
2. All told, today ’s release bolsters the hawkish case for further tightening and is consistent with our view that the deposit rate will be lifted from the current 2.50% to 3.00%.
3. A story of ongoing resilience The euro area composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September, a 41-month high, with both manufacturing and services remaining comfortably in expansion territory.