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Mexico dominates next week's Latam calendar with retail sales, bi-weekly October CPI, unemployment and August IGAE activity data. Headline bi-weekly inflation is forecast at 0.5% m/m and 3.7% y/y, with core at 0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Activity is expected to…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…
September US CPI came in hotter than expected and broad-based: headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, core 0.34% m/m and 2.6% y/y, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly all-items increase. Natixis says the print revives debate for the…
Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
Italy has passed a new electoral law aimed at curbing fragmentation and encouraging pre-election coalitions, which briefly tightened the 10Y BTP-Bund spread but left the move limited given implementation risk. Natixis forecasts the spread at 90bp by end-2026…
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
Peru's August GDP is expected to grow 3.3% y/y, only modestly below July's 3.6%, while Brazil's activity remains sluggish at around 1% y/y. Next week's highlights include US CPI and Latam activity data. Brazilian assets rallied on Bolsonaro's rising election…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
A screen of 512 option underlyings found 21 names far from their own implied volatility norms at the 2 Oct 2026 close. Brazil ETF EWZ ranked 100 ahead of its 4 October presidential vote. US health care names (MRK, DHR, BMY) showed elevated rank into…