宏观指标 | 反直觉的劳动力市场转变制约美国工资涨幅

关键论点

• 劳动力市场的结构性变化（人口统计、人工智能、移民）导致劳动力市场并不像失业率所显示的那么紧张。
• 就业人员构成的变化使得即使失业率下降，衡量到的工资增长也受到拖累。
• 劳动力参与率下降和就业率下降表明劳动力市场没有产生持续的通胀压力。
• 从全职转为兼职的转变是平均收入的最大拖累。
• 消费者物价通胀应随时间向劳动力成本趋势收敛，这表明当前较高的通胀可能是暂时的。
• 央行不应过度依赖失业率作为衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的指标。

对应原文证据

1. We find that a compositional shift in who is leaving employment – and who isn’t returning – is pulling measured U.S. wage growth lower even as the jobless rate declines. · medium-term
2. This shift, combined with rising labor force exits and a declining job-finding rate, paints a picture of a labor market that is not generating a sustained source of inflationary pressure. · medium-term
3. Given that labor costs are a large portion of the input costs for the goods and services produced across the U.S. economy, consumer price inflation, which is now elevated, should converge to labor cost trends over time. · medium-term