Natixis · John BRIGGS · 09/01/2026
Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook - September 1, 2026
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Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook 1 September 2026 John Briggs Head of US Rates Strategy john.briggs@natixis.com
Chart of the Week – 10yr Bund Yields Monthly 2 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Monthly chart on bunds looks quite negative after breaking out on close over 3.00%. ~3.40% is first retracement extension target, on this much longer-term perspective 4% is not inconceivable.
US 2yr Yields Support: (1) 4.368%: Recent high yields (2) 4.42%; Old high yield from January 2025 (not shown) (3) 4.535%: 50% retrace of 2023 yield highs and 2026 yield lows 3 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Hard to see much reason technically to argue against the rising channel that has existed on dailies since April. 2s oversold and bumping against July yield highs of 4.368% - important line in the sand. Resistance: (1) 4.16%: Rising channel low (2) 4.10%-4.11%: July low (from CPI inspired rally) and Aug low (3) ~4.00%: Top of original ceasefire range
US 5yr Yields Support: (1) 4.63%: Jan 2025 yield highs (not shown) (2) 4.736%: Fibonacci extension (3) 4.75%: April 2024 high yields (not shown) 4 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS This is one of those times to not over-complicate the chart: 5yr yields breaking out and targets are 4.63% and 4.736%. Resistance: (1) 4.384% Trend resistance (2) 4.22%-4.24%: Various resistance here (3) ~4.10%: A few retracements on several different looks line up here
US 10yr Yields Support: (1) 4.805%: Dec. 2025 yield high (2) 4.83%: Fibonacci extension (not shown) (3) 5.02%: 2023 yield highs 5 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Same here – wait for a signal to fade the market but note from a technical perspective 4.75% is a psychological level but 4.805% is better technical support. Resistance: (1) 4.52%: Trendline resistance (2) 4.30%: 50% retrace of the March to May selloff (3) ~4.20%: Top of old yield range, 50% retrace
US 30yr Yields Support: (1) 5.128%: Recent high yields (2) 5.44%: 2007 yield highs (yes that far back) (3) 5.54%: 2004 yield highs 6 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Bonds trying to stabilize but like the rest of the curve it is tenuous at best – watch recent yield highs. Resistance: (1) 5.16%: Daily trendline resistance (2) 5.05%: Retracement, July low yields (3) 4.96%-500%: Retracement zone from both time frames
UST Cash 2s10s Curve Support: (1) ~37bps: rising daily trendline (2) ~31bps: July flats (3) ~24bps: June flats 7 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Charts point slightly to res-steepening but some hurdles to get past – most notable the failure at 61.8% resistance at 54.9bps. Resistance: (1) ~55bps: Clusters of old highs, also 61.8% retrace (2) 59bps: Very minor prior over/under line (3) 73.9bps: 2026 steeps
UST Cash 5s30s Curve Support: (1) ~70bps: cluster of flats in July (2) 61bps-62bps: 38.2% retrace of the 2023-2025 steepening move, 61.8% retrace of recent steepening move, old lows. (3) 39bps: Long-term support on monthly chart (not shown) 8 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS 5s30s continues to behave very well technically, respecting retracements in particular (see ~95bps confluence of 200-day and 61.8% retrace). Looks attempting to bottom near 69.7bp support. Resistance: (1) 78bps-81bps: This a bit subjective, prior breakdown level and retrace zone (2) 86bps-88.5bps: Several retracements in this area (3) 95bps-98bps: 200day MA, old range flats
5yr Swap Spreads Support: (1) -30.25bps: Retracement support/recent lows (2) -34.2bps/-35.6bps: Weekly retrace/war lows (3) -37.2bps: 50% retrace 9 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS 5yr spreads continue to trade in week-long regimes/channels, and the latest is once again to wider spreads, but it is looking extended near-term Resistance: (1) -26bps: Top of daily channel (2) -24.3bps: 2026 highs (3) -22.4bps: 2024 highs (not shown)
5yr Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps Support: (1) 2.31%: Multiple lows (2) 2.16%: 2025 lows (not shown) (3) 2.05%: 2024 lows (not shown) 10 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK – ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Nice rally off weekly hammer pattern, some recent consolidation but chart still looks bullish. That said, “easy” ground has been covered and resistance looms. Resistance: (1) ~2.50%: , recent highs, 200-day MA and 61.8% retrace of recent decline (2) 2.62%: 38.2% retrace of recent decline (3) 2.81%: War-time highs
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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
- 10-year Bund yields broke out above 3.00%, targeting 3.40% and possibly 4% in the long term.
- US 2-year yields are oversold, bumping against July highs of 4.368%, which is a key resistance.
- 5-year yields are breaking out with targets at 4.63% and 4.736%.
- 10-year yields have technical support at 4.805% and resistance at 4.52%.
- 30-year yields are trying to stabilize but are tenuous, watching recent highs.
- Curves (2s10s, 5s30s) show slight steepening signals but face hurdles at 61.8% retracements.
- 5-year swap spreads remain in channels, looking extended near-term.
- 5-year zero-coupon inflation swaps rally looks bullish but faces resistance near 2.50%.
Risks
- 10-year Bund yields could rise to 4% if momentum continues, impacting global rates.
- US yields may continue to break higher, with resistance levels giving way.
- Curve steepening may fail at 61.8% retracement hurdles.
- Inflation swaps may face resistance near 2.50% and could consolidate.
- Technical indicators may be less reliable in volatile markets.