792 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.
Our fair value BEER model suggests that the MXN is about 21% stronger than what macro fundamentals support.
employment moderated to 51.2 from 52.8, but remains clear of the 6M average of 49.6.
United States: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, job openings, ISM PMIs, factory orders, trade, productivity.
The pace of payroll growth has slowed significantly in the wake of recent months’ downward revisions, but we do not interpret this as evidence of labor market slack. Payrolls are becoming a less meaningful gauge of labor market health as record retirements distort the picture.
As of the late, the move lower in the unemployment rate has been a labor force participation story. The tightness that we have been witnessing continues to be a supply story as retirements remain elevated and immigration stays exceptionally low.
A gain of 20k is expected with a downtick in the unemployment rate to 6.3%.
Next Friday, we expect employment to post a smaller 5,000 increase in August, while the unemployment rate holds steady.
Moreover, currently less than 25% of unemployed job seekers were permanently laid off (nearly half of those currently unemployed are new labor market entrants or re-entrants). And the share of employees working part-time for economic reasons has remained anchored despite softer payroll gains.
Further ahead, in 2027–2028, a continued strengthening of domestic demand and an eventual pickup in external demand could lead to GDP growth of around 3.0%.
GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 (down from 2.1% in Q1), with the headline dragged down by negative contributions from net trade and government. However, consumer spending and business investment grew 4.4% AR, the fastest pace since Q1 2023.
The UK economy grew by 0.4% q/q in Q2, a slight deceleration from the 0.6% seen in Q1. Growth was primarily supported by the services (+0.5%) and construction (+0.3%) sectors.
After today’s batch of data, we are sticking with our forecast for average 2026 GDP growth at 0.9% for the Italian economy.
We expect India's GDP growth to ease modestly to 7.5% year-on-year, but the economy should continue to outperform most regional peers.
We expect Australian GDP growth to slow to 1.8% YoY in 2Q, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing sector – including declining house prices – and softer residential investment.
Brent has moved back above USD 92 per barrel, while already tight refined-product markets remain particularly exposed.
Brent crude has fallen back below USD 90 per barrel and is heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks as traders cautiously price an improvement in Gulf exports and the possibility of an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Even with refiners operating at such high rates, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2012, at 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories also plunged to a record low of 105.6 million barrels.
A diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East could remove additional risk premium from energy
Oil prices were down slightly in July but still elevated, persisting the energy trade surplus.
Europe’s energy dependence has shifted from being a political issue to an economic vulnerability.
Gold and silver have both fallen by more than 4% since Friday as Warsh's speech produced three immediate headwinds: higher short-term rate expectations, rising real and nominal yields, and a stronger US dollar.
Gold has so far retraced only 38.2% of its August rally, which in technical terms is considered a relatively shallow correction within an established uptrend. For that picture to change, prices would need to break below a band of support in the USD 4,200–4,240 area.
Gold therefore remains caught between two opposing forces: the immediate cost of money and longer-term concerns about the quantity and credibility of money.
Gold briefly reached a three-month high near USD 4,700 this week before consolidating ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Silver has subsequently outperformed gold, while platinum has also participated, reinforcing the impression of renewed investor interest across the precious-metals complex.
Recovery will become more visible by 2027 when we forecast transactions to grow 6.7% to 483,600 units, and the benchmark value edges higher by 0.8% to $800,700.
Recovery will become more visible by 2027 when we forecast transactions to grow 6.7% to 483,600 units, and the benchmark value edges higher by 0.8% to $800,700.
Similarly, we see 2027 home values (RPS Home Price Index) edging higher by 0.7% in Ontario and 0.5% in B.C. for the first time in two years.
Similarly, we see 2027 home values (RPS Home Price Index) edging higher by 0.7% in Ontario and 0.5% in B.C. for the first time in two years.
It will take longer for the condo market segment to turn around, however. Abundant inventory in the Toronto and Vancouver areas, and investor apathy are bound to keep condo prices downward possibly into 2027.
Japan’s retail sales rose 4.0% YoY in July, accelerating from a revised 0.6% increase in June and beating market expectations of 3.0%.
The sector's strength defies concerns that a slowing economy and a weakening consumer would weigh on discretionary travel activity.
Our CBA Household Spending Insights data shows a clear downward trend in spending growth. Last year, annual spending growth was running at around 6%, it has now fallen to below 5%.
That said, a decline in willingness to purchase durable goods suggests consumers remain cautious, preferring to postpone major purchases until inflation cools further.
The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose more than four basis points to above 3.32%, a 15-year high.
We believe they are as low as they will get this cycle. Long term rates are, in fact, rising. Upward pressure on global bond yields is impacting Canadian rates. We expect further mild increases through the end of 2027.
investors should not underestimate the uncertainty that Bessent has introduced into the Treasury market.
All that said, we remain agnostic on the long end here, having been bearish all year.
The model is also short the most volatile shares and the hardest ones to sell quickly, avoiding the exposures that tend to hurt most when a crowded trade unwinds.
The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 28,299 lots to 223,598 lots as of last Tuesday. The move was driven mainly by longs liquidating.
Following the US–Japan joint FX intervention, there has been some unwinding of long USD positions, mainly against JPY.
Overall, our analysis suggests that the market is still broadly long USD against currencies such as EUR and NZD. This positioning would remain a risk to USD if the US macro deterioration theme gains traction
That said, Motoriste pose themselves as a classical central-right party, with fiscal responsibility representing one of their priorities during the election campaign. This may end up as a political manoeuvre in which the 3% deficit looks wonderful in the end.
The first round of the Brazilian presidential election takes place on 4 October. Expect USD/BRL to be bounced around by polling results before then.
On France, our rates strategy team are focusing on French-German bond spreads staying near recent wides as the French presidential campaign gets underway.
You should always expect some volatility around the midterm elections. I think longer term, they don't really matter a whole lot, but over the near term, they will matter from a headline standpoint.
Crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded back above USD 91 after US forces struck an island in the Strait, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on the UAE and Jordan.
Oil held onto Thursday’s gains, with Brent rising towards USD 90 as prospects for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded.
On geopolitics, oil prices moved higher after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump was not interested in returning to the terms of a June agreement with Iran. Brent was up over 2% at around USD89.4 per barrel.
Listed crypto rebounded sharply from Friday's slide. Circle led at 9.65%, with BitMine 6.39% higher, Coinbase 5.31%, IREN 4.70% and Strategy 4.42%, while the spot bitcoin and ether funds each added close to 2%.