Views

Custom-chip projects can take years to scale.

Software companies may own valuable data without successfully charging more for AI access.

Watch delayed production ramps, weak AI-related contract growth and rising usage that fails to become recurring revenue.

Nvidia's chief financial officer forecast approximately 70% revenue growth in the fiscal year ending January 2028, allaying concerns about the durability of the AI spending cycle.

The strong July monthly CPI does raise the chance of an RBA hike in November. But we do not think this one data point is enough to rush all the way to the other side of boat and lock in a hike.

The timing of the September meeting is awkward for policymakers considering an early hike. The August CPI is released the following day.

But one monthly CPI print is not enough evidence to price in a hike fully.

If the RBA does raise the cash rate in the near term, it would more of an insurance hike, reflecting unease about a slow pace of return of inflation to target.

Whatever the next few meetings bring, split decisions are a distinct possibility.

A September hike would certainly involve dissents. Depending on Q3 inflation and the rest of the data flow between now and then, a November hike could easily involve a split vote as well.

When we last updated our rates view on 29 July, we said that the risk of a rate hike in November could not be ruled out, but it was no longer the base case.

while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved

Warsh remains deeply critical of forward guidance particularly the sort used during the financial crisis and during COVID. He argues that deterministic, pre-committed guidance leads to policy errors once the economy normalizes as occurred after COVID.

He argues that forecast-based guidance works “better in the lab than in the field” . For example, he notes that FOMC members consistently forecasted inflation would return to 2% despite signs it wasn’t after COVID.

Instead, he believes policy should be guided by a set of “key principles” . This means putting more emphasis on “trends” rather than “isolated data”. Policy is implemented through changes in short-term interest rates; rather than QE.

Price stability is defined by the PCE index – although in his discussion of current conditions he noted other measures including the dispersion of prices within the CP as well as commodities. That said, he thinks wages are less helpful for predicting inflation. Finally, he argues that “we should pay attention to money created by the central bank” . We think this is an oblique reference to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

As the expansion in Section 301 has roughly the same coverage as the Section 122 duties, we expect the average effective tariff rate to hold near 7% next year.

Buy the 10y on dips in early September, or as and when the ACM term premium is above 80bp.

We look for ISM manufacturing index to increase in August, rising to 56.1 from 55.6 in July.

We look for the index to post a modest increase to 54.7 in August with rebounds in employment and supplier deliveries.

Scotia's house call is +300k to March 2026 payrolls for an average of about +25k per month from April 2025 to March 2026.

Monthly GDP figures up to June and our early estimate for July—when hours worked jumped higher by 0.6% m/m SA—imply baked-in Q3 GDP growth of 1.8% q/q SAAR.

Tokyo’s core CPI reading in August remained hot at 3.7% m/m SAAR (0.3% m/m SA).

the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to just shy of 4.7% has backed into higher mortgage rates.

The renewed strength comes after reports that President Trump told mediators the US has no intention of returning to the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding.

Venezuela is considering leaving the group as relations with the US improve following the ousting of Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year.

European gas prices also jumped yesterday as hopes of a resumption in US/Iran talks faded. TTF settled 3.8% higher on the day.

European gas storage remains tight, and the region will struggle to hit the lower storage target of 75% ahead of the heating season.

Zinc for immediate delivery traded almost $200/t above the three-month contract on Wednesday.

The European Commission’s latest Sugar Market Observatory projects EU sugar production to decline by 19% year-on-year to 13.4mt in the 2026/27 season.

On the US data front, initial jobless claims fell by 4k to 203k in the week ended 22 August, below consensus of 208k and marking a second consecutive weekly decline.

TD reported strong 3QFY2026 earnings with growth broad-based across core franchises. Adjusted net income rose to CAD4.7bn (+21% y/y) and adjusted ROE at 16%.

Mainland China was higher at USD72 in 1H2026 (1H2025: USD68), while RevPAR for HKSAR was higher at USD248 in 1H2026 (1H2025: USD222). Singapore Re vPAR was USD200 in 1H2026, higher than 1H2025’s USD192.

Further losses cannot be ruled out if selling prices or market conditions weaken relative to current net realisable value assumptions, but the smaller remaining development exposure limits the potential Group-level impact.

The SGD SORA OIS curve traded higher yesterday with the shorter tenors trading flat to 4bps higher, belly tenors trading 4bps higher, and the 10Y tenor trading 3bps higher .

Asian asset owners are reassessing gold’s strategic role as inflation shocks, less reliable equity–bond diversification, currency volatility, and geopolitical fragmentation make portfolio construction more challenging.

Since 2020, inflationary pressures, aggressive monetary tightening, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty have periodically driven equities and bonds lower together, making traditional equity—bond diversification less reliable (Figure 1).

Policy support is also widening asset owner access: the 2025 pilot program allows selected insurers to allocate up to 1% of assets to gold.

Reforms to broaden access to gold ETFs within Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) system could unlock a meaningful source of long-term retirement capital.

Taiwan's rising overseas and US dollar exposures may reinforce the case for gold as a strategic allocation among insurers and pension funds.

central banks accumulated an average of around 1,000 tonnes annually over the past four years, and 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months (Figure 5).

Physically backed gold ETFs offer direct exposure to the gold price without the custody requirements of physical bullion or the need to roll futures positions, making them an increasingly attractive vehicle for strategic gold allocations.

And over time, Asian asset owners are likely to become an increasingly important driver of long-term gold demand.

Second, he stressed that 2% on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator is “a firm fixed target” on which the Fed must deliver.

Unless the inflation picture improves significantly, it will be hard for the Fed to justify not raising rates.

These kinds of interventions are less like quantitative easing than like rearranging the chairs on the deck of… Well, no, let's not go that far.

If the government wants to reduce the cost of its debt, it will have to take a hard look at its own fundamentals and bring the fiscal deficit down to more sustainable levels.

we review the key themes of our new Economic Overview which depicts a more optimistic view of the economy and strengthening growth.

See the latest forecasts for real GDP, policy rates, foreign exchange rates and commodities.

Second, assessments of financial conditions can put more weight on the short end of the yield curve than the long end.