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US personal consumption growth then beat expectations in July as it rose 0.2%, aided by a 0.4% increase in incomes. That said, the deflator was also 0.1ppts stronger at 0.2%, leaving real consumption flat for the month

US new home sales unexpectedly dropped by 10.5% in July to an annualised pace of just 607k – a new low for 2026.

In August, the index held near its lowest level in 18 months – a level also materially below the historic average. Cost of living pressures are critical to consumers’ concern: inflation has outpaced wage growth since the pandemic and workers fear this trend will continue, with 1-year inflation expectations remaining elevated in August at 5.8%yr

If agreed to, this could bring a degree of confidence over supply through the Strait, particularly if the US remains focused on applying economic pressure.

Today, Open Fiber is Italy’s largest wholesale fibre-to-the-home operator, with more than 162,700 kilometres of network connecting over 20 million households nationwide, helping to expand access to high-speed broadband and support economic growth.

The aim is to install more than 500 electric vehicle charging service areas on urban and suburban roads across the country.

Macquarie Capital recently partnered with Chiron Energy to establish a renewable energy platform that aims to develop at least 1 GW of solar capacity and 500 MW of battery storage across Italy.

Since 2017, it has raised approximately €2.7 billion from more than 50 Italian investors through fund structures and co-investment opportunities.

Local expertise and a successful track record of developing partnerships on the ground are also necessary for successfully managing infrastructure investments in Italy, says Ricci, given the highly regulated environment and significant political, social and community interest.

Our central case is that we will see a diplomatic resolution that reopens the Strait to traffic in the next 4-6 weeks, avoiding critical shortfalls across oil and other key markets.

We now shouldn’t expect major economic shocks once a decade, but more like once every 1-2 years.

In 2025, our internal measure of household income growth was running at very strong annual rates of above 10% in nominal terms. That has now stepped down to 7-8%.

However, the BoE says that, drawing on the evidence being developed through its assessment, blueprint work, technology experiments, and engagements with industry, academia and civil society, it and HM Treasury intend to set out their decision on next steps by the end of 2026.

As of the end of June 2026, no ARTs have been authorised compared with 40 EMTs.

Before the speech, it was priced at a 34% probability for a hike. It's now at 54%.

The 2yr yield is up to 4.3%, pushing the carry spread to the funds rate out to above 66bp.

Typically, when that gets to 75bp there is an imminent hike priced.

The 5yr part of the curve is de-richening (cheapening) also, which points to an increased worry on the rate hike risk.

We are far more constructive on inflation, and its path lower through 2027, and without the need for hikes.

He also made reference to strong capex growth related to AI, noted low credit spreads and strong issuance, and that commercial and loans markets were buoyant; emphasising that monetary conditions are not restrictive.

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase its overnight cash rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September.

We also think they will retain a bias for more tightening, but the bar to match markets' very hawkish expectations for the next year is set high.

There is also a risk that not all RBNZ members are equally convinced by the case for further tightening, leading to a more nuanced and less hawkish message.

Our call for the RBNZ is for two more hikes. One at this September meeting, and another either at the December or February meeting.

For FX, we see downside risks for the NZD around this meeting, given the high hurdle for the RBNZ to validate market pricing.

Further out, we still think a repricing of dovish Fed expectations, even after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can lift NZD/USD into year-end.

Taken together, the data fully support a September hike and argue for retaining a hawkish bias.

The business outlook also continues to improve, with the composite confidence index rising for a fourth consecutive month to 96.9, its highest level since April.

Notwithstanding a modest monthly gain in August, confidence in manufacturing reached 89.9, the highest level since June 2023.

Confidence in market services came in at 99.5 (from 98.2 in July), reaching the highest level since March, driven by gains in transport and storage and, even more markedly, in tourism.

The fairly volatile construction sector data recorded a rebound in August, which more than compensated the sharp July fall.

It seems that the long-lasting heatwave, which hit many Italian seaside spots, had no negative impact whatsoever on tourism activity, a relevant value-added generator for the Italian economy.

The registered unemployment rate is forecast to stand at 6.0% at the end of 2027, compared with our projection of 5.9%.

At first glance, projected gross borrowing needs for 2027 compare favourably with the expected 2026 outturn. While the details of the draft budget have yet to be released, we assume this largely reflects the timing of EU fund disbursements.

The draft budget embraces fiscally neutral changes to direct taxes that were announced previously.

In light of the planned personal income tax changes for next year, it would not be surprising if gross minimum wages were to rise by a much smaller low single-digit percentage than we have become accustomed to in recent years.

However, geopolitical risks and changes in domestic economic policy continue to dampen business optimism.

Following the disappointing retail performance in June, we are expecting a rebound. This will be partly due to the effect of the FIFA World Cup which boosted both food and non-food retail.

Against this backdrop, we continue to recommend that long-term investors keep diversification at the center of their portfolios.

over the medium term, our view of a weaker USD remains intact.

However, suppressing the term premium on the long end would risk a drop in demand for Treasurys — potentially adding to USD weakness.

some re-establishment of FX carry trades since the start of August

Inflationary pressures remain very subdued across other categories: goods inflation stood at -0.4%, services inflation at 2.0%, and food inflation at 1.1%.

Markets appear to have taken these remarks as his intended signal that a discussion about a policy rate hike is clearly on the table for the September meeting.

Market consensus expects industrial production growth to moderate to 3.5% YoY, down from 4.9%.

If Warsh underestimates the mood at the long-end of the market and 30-year Treasury yields spike back towards 5.30%, higher volatility will see higher-yielding carry currencies underperform and probably CHF start to outperform again as it did briefly last week.

Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028

Nvidia’s results on 26 August 2026 confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing remains enormous.

Marvell secured a major custom-chip agreement with Google, but management said the biggest contribution should arrive later, particularly from fiscal 2029.

Revenue reached 2.48 billion USD, up about 42%, while management raised its outlook and pointed to AI-driven complexity.