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ABN AMRO maintains its end-2026 EUR/USD forecast at 1.15, arguing that although more negative German-US yield spreads and French fiscal-political uncertainty continue to weigh on the euro, markets are pricing in too many Fed and ECB rate hikes. If…
Bond volatility dominates markets as US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5% and touched 5.34% on 1 October, the highest since 2002, driven by Middle East oil tensions, strong US data and heavy AI-related corporate issuance. Equities proved resilient, with…
Risk sentiment is improving — equities at records, Brent briefly below $100 and rate volatility easing — yet ING warns the relief is uneven and rates are unlikely to settle calmly. Marine Le Pen's fiscal plan tightened the 10y OAT/Bund spread by almost 10bp…
The US dollar may stabilize around 102.0 in DXY, but risks are skewed to the upside. The September FOMC minutes are unlikely to surprise dovishly given the hawkish dot plot, while soft post-meeting data sets a high bar for a positive dollar reaction. Oil…
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50% and shifted to "calibrated tightening", but MUFG judges the move not hawkish enough to justify current INR front-end pricing (1y OIS 6.26%, 2y 6.45%). MUFG forecasts one more hike to 5.75% by Feb 2027, with risk of…
Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Czech September CPI rose to 2.5% y/y, with core near 3.1% and services at 4.6% y/y. Fuel, regulated energy and a weaker koruna are lifting goods prices; food disinflation is seen reversing. ING assigns an 80% probability to a November CNB hike and 30% to a…
French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
State Street's Jennifer Taylor argues the 2026 energy-driven inflation impulse is narrower than 2021-2022, so most EM central banks will pause or slow cuts rather than hike broadly. High starting yields favor carry in local currency EM debt, with duration and…
The National Bank of Poland is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on 7 October despite September CPI at 4.0% YoY. Fuel-market intervention (lower excise duty and VAT) will subtract 0.7pp from CPI through year-end. Price pressures appear limited to…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…
Middle East Daily, 6 October 2026. Brent December futures stabilize near USD 101/b and WTI November just under USD 90/b after Saudi OSP cuts and Yemeni advances toward Bab el Mandeb. Kuwait output recovered to ~2m b/d, 75% of pre-war 2.6m b/d, as Hormuz…