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Both the Fed (25bp to 3.75%-4.00%) and the BoJ (25bp, 7-2 vote) hiked in September 2026. The Fed's unanimous move versus the BoJ's split vote may lead markets to test the BoJ's commitment, weakening the yen and steepening the JGB curve. The report sees this…
BoJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, the fastest three-month cadence of its tightening cycle. MUFG judges the hike lacks hawkish impact: it merely confirms the July Outlook baseline rather than responding to new upside risks. Pressure…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and volatility split: MOVE fell 3.56% to 80.73 while VIX rose 2.97% to 17.71. The S&P 500 has used 103% of its priced weekly range to the downside with two sessions left. Saxo reads the move…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
The Fed hiked 25bp and the dot plot showed strong support for another hike this year, sending DXY up 0.6% to a two-month high and widening the two-year swap differential by 15bp. ING sees near-term USD upside, EUR/USD downside toward 1.132-1.135, BoE on hold…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with a hawkish message; markets price at least three more hikes by mid-2027. The dollar rallied, front-end Treasury yields rose, Wall Street fell while Europe advanced. Brent dropped below…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
Japan's 2s10s JGB curve has widened through most of the BoJ's hiking cycle, driven by rising terminal-rate expectations, but has recently tightened to the mid-110bp range as the OIS market prices a hike every other meeting and a ~2.4% terminal rate. If those…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
A September 2026 State Street Systematic Equity note argues the AI boom's parallel with the dot-com era is instructive, but the lesson is not to shun transformative technology: technological success does not determine which companies capture returns. Market…
Schroders keeps a pro-cyclical stance for September 2026, seeing low US recession risk and resilient earnings but rising, increasingly correlated risks. It stays positive on equities, commodities and government bonds, is tactically long the US 10-year, holds…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
MUFG revises its BoJ policy rate scenario and now expects the next hike at the September 17-18 MPM to 1.25%, followed by 1.50% in January 2027 and a terminal rate of 1.75% in June 2027. The revision reflects Governor Ueda's pledge to hold a thorough…
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, the shortest interval this cycle, pressured by coordinated US-Japan yen intervention, Washington's call for higher rates and a hawkish Board tilt. With wages and producer…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
State Street expects the FOMC to hike on September 16 and again in December after August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, though it disputes the case for tightening. The ECB delivered a second 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and signalled more. The BoJ is expected…
Markets opened the week risk-off after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure, reportedly lasting weeks, and AI leaders' calls to slow development; President Trump's pushback against AI controls limited US equity losses. Brent rose 1.6% to $106.3/bbl and…
The ECB raised policy rates by 25bp to 2.50%, a unanimous, scenario-robust decision, reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside; growth risks to the downside. Lagarde struck a…
Since the Takaichi Cabinet formed, JGB yields rose led by the 10-year sector on BoJ-behind-the-curve fears, with the 2s10s spread widening. That trend has recently reversed after coordinated US-Japan yen-buying intervention in late July and remarks by US…
MUFG expects the BoJ to raise its uncollateralized overnight call rate target from around 1% to around 1.25% at the September meeting, a move the market has priced with greater than 90% probability. The 10-year JGB yield is likely to remain volatile in the…