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The US dollar strengthened modestly even as Brent crude fell around 4%, after US and Iranian officials met at the UN General Assembly and indirect talks were described as very productive. Optimism on a deal to halt the conflict, and reports Iran may reopen…
Hawkish remarks from non-voting Fed officials Goolsbee and Musalem lifted front-end USD rates even as Brent briefly fell below $100/bbl, breaking the usual oil-dollar link. ING sees near-term dollar upside, with DXY possibly reaching 101.0 by month-end, while…
Wall Street rallied on AI and semiconductor strength, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.83%. Meta and AMD led gains, AMD crossing a $1 trillion market value. Oil rebounded after four sessions, Brent at $102 and WTI at…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
UBS CIO argues rising rates alone will not derail equities, as the Fed, ECB, and BoE tighten and the BoJ enters a new policy phase. Resilient growth and robust earnings support staying positioned for upside, with transformational innovation in AI, energy…
Despite a $20+ oil surge, a 60bp rise in 2-year Treasury yields, Fed tightening, and the bombing of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the S&P 500 sits only 2.07% below its August 13 record. Invesco argues bullish fundamentals—strong nominal growth, outsized…
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%-4% range in a unanimous September decision, framed as an insurance and credibility measure to return inflation to target sooner. Projections imply one further hike by end-2026, then a hold in 2027.…
State Street's weekly outlook sees the Middle East energy crisis as the biggest risk to an otherwise constructive macro backdrop, with US midterms raising escalation odds. The Fed hiked 25bp in September and may hold before possibly reversing one hike by…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
The Fed raised its funds target range 25bp to 3.75-4.00% unanimously under Chair Warsh, with 16 of 19 members seeing another hike by year-end; BNP expects at least two more, December base case. The BOJ lifted its rate to 1.25%, a 1995 high, but two dissents…
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, with two board members dissenting. Governor Ueda said the underlying CPI has moved closer to 2%, prompting a shortened three-month rate cycle. Natixis now expects 25bp hikes in…
Natixis sees Asian growth bifurcating: China softens and drags exposed sectors, while North Asia, India and parts of ASEAN accelerate. Exports are China's key engine on a competitive real exchange rate, but ageing cuts its growth to around 1% by 2050. Japan's…
Speculators slashed the gross dollar long by 70% to USD 5.9bn, a 15-month low, just before hawkish Fed and BoJ signals revived dollar buying. A record two-week 216k-contract yen buying spree lifted the net long to a 14-month high of 120k contracts, leaving it…
ING now expects the ECB and Fed to hike in December and keeps its year-end EUR/USD target at 1.160. Oil is the key FX driver this week, with Trump meeting Gulf states and Xi. USD/JPY upside risks remain, with 160.0 plausible but intervention risk elevated.…
Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
BOJ hiked rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, but markets read the meeting as dovish: no faster hike signal, two PM-aligned dissenters favouring a hold, no 50bp hike from Takata or Tamura, and Governor Ueda seeing low probability of back-to-back hikes. USD/JPY…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Fed hike pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0%, with markets pricing ~33bp more tightening by end-2026 and ~85bp by end-2027. Aussie OIS implies a 4.76% cash rate by year-end. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened on cautious Ueda guidance and two…