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The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
UK August CPI rose to 3.1%, 25bp above the BoE's July projection, driven by energy while core (2.6%) and services (3.4%) stayed stable. With Brent near $110 and gas at multi-year highs, MUFG expects a hawkish hold at the September BoE meeting and a signal…
Markets fully price a consensus 25bp Fed hike to 4.0%, with 52bp by year-end and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would hit the dollar hard via front-end repricing and a Treasury selloff, but the Fed is mindful of that risk, keeping a hold unlikely and arguing…
UK headline inflation edged up to 3.1% in August on a 7% monthly rise in fuel costs. ING expects inflation to reach 3.4% next month and peak around 3.7% early next year if the household energy cap rises by circa 25% in January. However, food inflation fell to…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
UK private sector payrolls fell another 34k in August, down 0.8% year-on-year, with retail and hospitality job losses exceeding 3% annualised. Private sector wage growth appears to have floored at 2.9%, or about 3.3% adjusted for compositional effects. ING…
The dollar finally aligned with supportive drivers: elevated front-end rates, oil near $107, and soft risk sentiment. DXY notched its strongest session since the Jackson Hole speech. USD/JPY briefly hit 155 and may extend to 156-157. The Fed hiked as…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
Markets opened the week risk-off after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure, reportedly lasting weeks, and AI leaders' calls to slow development; President Trump's pushback against AI controls limited US equity losses. Brent rose 1.6% to $106.3/bbl and…
The ECB raised policy rates by 25bp to 2.50%, a unanimous, scenario-robust decision, reaffirming a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside; growth risks to the downside. Lagarde struck a…
A triple threat of AI growth concerns, elevated bond yields and an oil price spike has driven broad risk-off flows, lifting the US dollar. The week ahead is packed with the FOMC, BoE and BoJ, while a 25bp BoJ hike is fully priced and Fed Chair Warsh is…
Every headline volatility measure fell Friday except skew, which rose 5.08% to 154.49 as the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98. The 18 September expiry prices a 1.33% move, down from 141 points, though three central bank decisions fall inside that window. The…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
CommBank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates 0.25pp this week to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023, after August core inflation rose 0.3% and markets priced about an 85% chance of a hike. The Bank of England is seen holding at 3.75%,…
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after drone attacks halts a 5 mb/d export route, putting about 4% of global supply at risk and pushing Brent above $107. Equities fell as AI names unwound and the Fed is expected to hike 25bp on Wednesday. Gold eased…
US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85% to a 3.75-4% band. UMich 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. The 10-year UST yield reached 4.96-4.97%, near a three-year high; the S&P 500 gained 0.9% Friday but…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…