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Czech September CPI rose to 2.5% y/y, with core near 3.1% and services at 4.6% y/y. Fuel, regulated energy and a weaker koruna are lifting goods prices; food disinflation is seen reversing. ING assigns an 80% probability to a November CNB hike and 30% to a…
French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
French bond market turbulence is weighing on the euro via a contained fiscal risk premium and a sharp repricing of ECB rate expectations, leaving EUR/USD risks skewed to the downside toward 1.110 or 1.100. The dollar stays broadly supported, the BoE speaker…
The yen gave back recent gains after a Bloomberg report that Japan's GPIF did not discuss portfolio allocation at last month's meeting, lifting USD/JPY back above 158.00. MUFG notes the yen remains the best-performing G10 currency since end-August, with…
J.P. Morgan keeps a positive relative stance on developed-market SMID caps versus large caps, noting the Russell 2500 rose ~16% year to date as of September 16 versus ~10% for the S&P 500. Easing wage inflation, favorable debt structures, heavy…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…
European government bond market turmoil may prompt further dovish ECB repricing, as second-round inflation risks remain limited and labour markets are less tight than in 2022. Wide credit spreads and weaker sentiment tighten financial conditions. Longer-dated…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated with an upward bias in October, as concerns persist that the BoJ will tighten too slowly. The Fed is projected to hike 25bp on Oct 28 while the BoJ holds on Oct 29-30. Fiscal policy is the key: the FY27…
Latin American equities stood out as a diversifier in Q3 2026, supported by attractive valuations and an improving policy mix, while global equities stayed resilient despite higher yields. US Q2 GDP grew 2.2% annualised, core inflation reached 3.0%, but…
Natixis reports Brazil's first-round presidential vote: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.03% against incumbent President Lula's 45.16%, with other mostly center-right candidates combining for 7.79%. Natixis believes Bolsonaro is likely to win the October 25…
Markets enter the week cautiously after Friday's weak 29k US payrolls print, with politics dominating. Quebec votes tonight: the separatist PQ may win around 30% and a minority or slim majority, yet majorities oppose both the PQ and separation. Quebec already…
Natixis expects France's 2027 draft budget (PLF/PLFSS) to miss its 5.0%-of-GDP deficit target by about 0.5pp, forecasting 5.5% — a slight deterioration from 5.4% in 2026. With a fragmented National Assembly and presidential elections in April-May 2027, the…
The US rare earth supply chain remains vulnerable because its weaknesses are downstream: processing, heavy rare earth separation, and magnet manufacturing. Despite record output at Mountain Pass and some neodymium-iron-boron magnet production in Texas, the US…
The euro is repricing lower on French fiscal risk, driving broad euro weakness and pushing the dollar index to new 2026 highs. The ECB's tightening cycle is seen as more vulnerable to repricing than the Fed's, leaving EUR/USD under pressure with a 1.1100/1120…
US headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% YoY and core at 3.0% in August, still above the Fed's 2% goal, with energy rebounding 2.3% MoM and goods inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.3%. Pay growth slowed to 0.1% MoM and 3.0% YoY, signaling labor slack. Australia's…
With 10-year yields above 5% in the US and Australia, the manager argues high-quality bonds again offer income plus a hedge if synchronized tightening into an oil supply shock slows growth. It favours front-end Australian government bonds, expects RBA cuts in…
September brought a violent global bond repricing, with the US 10-year yield rising over 50bp to 5.28% and the 30-year to 5.63%, on strong US growth, an oil supply shock and a hawkish Fed hike to 4%. Equities held up at the index level (S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq…
Renewed Gulf conflict pushed oil above US$100 and drove developed-market bond yields to multi-decade highs. The Fed, ECB, RBA and BOJ all tightened as markets priced further hikes. Schroders argues elevated starting yields — portfolio yield ~6.5% — provide an…
US September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k versus ~90k expected, with August revised down to 133,000; unemployment edged up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% MoM (3.0% YoY). The S&P 500 gained 0.73% on Friday, led by tech, while the 10-year…