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Wall Street rallied on AI and semiconductor strength, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at a record and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.83%. Meta and AMD led gains, AMD crossing a $1 trillion market value. Oil rebounded after four sessions, Brent at $102 and WTI at…
The US dollar has strengthened after the Fed began tightening, pushing the dollar index back above 100.00 for the first time since early August, with 101.80 as next resistance. The move is supported by a roughly 55bp rise in the 2-year Treasury yield since…
Oil's roughly $3/barrel decline drove lower sovereign yields across Europe and North America, with major equities up 0.75-1% while the dollar was little changed. Weekend hints of US-China progress precede Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting, though the note flags an…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Westpac brings forward its call for the next RBA cash rate hike to September from November, seeing scope for internal Monetary Policy Board members to muster a majority. It flags no change to the pencilled-in start of eventual cuts in August 2027, but says…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…
State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Markets fully price a consensus 25bp Fed hike to 4.0%, with 52bp by year-end and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would hit the dollar hard via front-end repricing and a Treasury selloff, but the Fed is mindful of that risk, keeping a hold unlikely and arguing…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…