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China's September PPI inflation rose to 5.0% YoY, the highest since 2022 and above forecasts, while CPI edged up to 0.9% YoY. Energy and tech drove gains, but food, rent and autos still dragged. ING judges the worst of deflation may have passed, though…
MAS sprang a surprise by leaving its exchange-rate policy stance unchanged in October, versus consensus for very slight tightening. MUFG reads the forward guidance as implying Singapore's central bank stays on hold, with the appreciating S$NEER band leaning…
Brent December futures trade up 0.4% at USD 106.13/b and WTI near USD 94.51/b as a missile strike on Saudi Aramco HQ and persistent Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks keep a wide geopolitical risk premium. Gold sits near USD 4,161/oz before US September CPI.…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
SMBC forecasts tomorrow's US CPI at 0.5% headline and 0.2% core. Although 31% of small businesses (net) are raising prices, the historical link between that NFIB series and inflation breadth broke down in 2024, likely due to weakening wage growth and high…
Scotiabank argues the BoC should ignore Friday's weak Canadian jobs report and stay focused on inflation, since the 70k September public-sector decline (58k health/education, 46k in Quebec) looks implausible during an election. It urges an external…
Korean chip stocks fell 6.12% overnight, breaking the Kospi below 6,000 and triggering a sell-side curb, while the S&P 500 closed virtually unchanged at 7,807.24. The divergence reflected low three-month implied correlation (11.75) and dispersion, not a broad…
State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
USD/JPY traded near 158, capped by the 200-day moving average around 158.50, after opening the week at 157.73. Speculation over US attacks on Iran supported oil and commodity currencies. September CPI on 14 October and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 15 October…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
Asian chip stocks plunged after a Chinese memory design advance by CXMT; the Kospi fell 6.12%, triggering a sell-side curb, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit. US bank earnings and key data (US CPI, Fed speakers) loom. Oil eased to USD 105.50 after Monday's spike,…
Citi remains in the 'resilience' camp on global equities, citing a firm macro backdrop and consensus MSCI AC World EPS growth of +35% this year, decelerating to +16% in 2027. Three headwinds are acknowledged — Fed hiking, geopolitics, French OAT-Bund spreads…
US equities closed mixed: S&P flat, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, with memory-chip and semiconductor names down 4-10% after China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent rose 1.8% to USD106.7/bbl and WTI 2.0% to USD93.7/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated near 3% in the week of October 13, with an intraday range of 2.965%-3.115%. The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate, a proxy for terminal-rate expectations, is seen holding around 2.5%, the top of the BoJ's…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 headline CPI at 0.52% MoM (3.6% YoY) and core at 0.19% MoM (2.4% YoY), in line with consensus. Core goods face tariff and import/energy pressure, partly offset by used-auto deflation, while wireless services and lodging…
Higher rates do not automatically mean lower stocks; the drivers, speed, and earnings matter. Schwab argues the recent rise is mostly constructive, tied to growth and the AI capital buildout, though an energy shock or fiscal stress could turn it problematic.…
J.P. Morgan analysts say housing affordability is at its weakest US level since 2008: buying a median-priced home needs 43% of median household income, 30-year mortgage rates are near 7%, and only 35.2% of under-35s own homes. Chronic supply-demand…
The Fed sees a balanced US labor market after its September hike: payroll gains averaged about 142,000 in May but slowed to about 51,000 by September, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 3% year over year, the slowest since May…