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Eurozone inflation and confidence data are secondary to global crosswinds, with second-round effects unlikely to appear this week. The ECB sees higher long-term rates as a growth headwind and maintains a measured response. Consumer confidence is the weak…
State Street reports a six-month upturn in global manufacturing, led by developed markets and AI investment. The US preliminary September manufacturing PMI hit 57.0, its highest since May 2022, while the UK composite PMI fell to a three-month low of 51.7 and…
With Brent near $100, sterling money markets price more than four Bank of England hikes, taking SONIA to about 4.75%. ING's economist disagrees: the BoE is expected to hold and eventually cut to 3.25% by mid-2027 as inflation converges to target by mid-2027…
MUFG reviews September central bank week: the ECB and Fed hiked 25bp, the BoE held, and the BoJ hiked 25bp in a 7-2 vote. From 9 to 25 September, US and European curves flattened while Japan's steepened slightly. A split BoJ vote and reflation-linked…
Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
MUFG expects the BoE to deliver 25bp hikes in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%, after hawkish MPC comments and PMI price pressures. UK fiscal headroom has likely shrunk by about £15bn, leaving under £10bn before energy support decisions. In…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Global markets stayed resilient after a rates sell-off, with the 10-year UST yield rising about 8bp to 5.20% and futures pricing a 71% chance of an October Fed hike. Supporting data: jobless claims at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%. Norway hiked, Sweden…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
Risk sentiment improved briefly on reports of a phased US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but hurdles remain. Tightening bias broadened: Norway hiked, Sweden signalled a hike, BoE's Lombardelli and Breeden moved closer to a hike, and Fed's Paulson…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
US 10yr Treasury yields extended their overshoot toward 5.25-5.5%, driven mainly by higher real yields rather than inflation expectations, which remain contained. Weak 5yr and 7yr auctions added momentum, pushing yields above 5.1% and near 5.2%. Bearish…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…
State Street estimates the long-term UK nominal neutral rate at 2.5%-3.00%, arguing the post-pandemic rise reflected the inflation shock rather than a durable improvement in the real economy. Weak productivity, aging demographics and subdued investment demand…
Scotiabank's daily notes flag a 'funny season' for manipulated markets before the US midterms, with Trump jawboning oil lower on Iran talks despite unchanged nuclear stockpiles and war risk. Potash and diesel threats appear empty: Belarus has no surplus and a…
Hawkish remarks from non-voting Fed officials Goolsbee and Musalem lifted front-end USD rates even as Brent briefly fell below $100/bbl, breaking the usual oil-dollar link. ING sees near-term dollar upside, with DXY possibly reaching 101.0 by month-end, while…