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The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and much more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred…
Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten…
Declining correlations, rising tracking error, and greater country-level dispersion suggest international markets are delivering increasingly distinct outcomes from US equities. While global equity markets still share a common equity beta, their return paths…
Bond markets are under pressure now, but as yields rise, opportunities for investors to benefit from higher income are opening. • Global bond yields have risen across all maturities, with longer-dated bonds reaching multi-year highs. • A mix of factors is…
Saxo Bank's options brief for September 7, 2026, highlights a market regime characterized by low volatility and bullish sentiment, with the VIX at 14.53 and a contango term structure. Key developments include a strong payrolls report shifting Fed rate hike…
Wellington Management maintains a modest overweight stance on global equities and global duration, with a preference for emerging markets over the UK, neutral views on Europe ex-UK, US, Japan, and credit, and an underweight stance on Europe ex-UK government…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…
Article | 7 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 7 September 2026 FX EMEA FX Talking: High yield and CEE remain in demand A modest adjustment in US interest rates looks unlikely to unnerve the carry trade environment,…
Article | 7 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 7 September 2026 FX Latam FX Talking: Polls tighten in the Brazilian election The first round of the Brazilian presidential election takes place in early October. President Lula s…
OCBC's daily credit snapshot highlights stronger-than-expected US payrolls raising Fed hike odds, with Treasury yields climbing. Credit spreads show mixed movements across IG and HY in the US and Asia. Corporate updates include Fosun's stake sale, Chinese…
BNP Paribas' weekly economic review highlights accelerating eurozone inflation leading to a likely ECB rate hike, robust US payrolls boosting Fed hike odds, hawkish BOJ signals firming the yen, and mixed global manufacturing with strong services in Europe.…
The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would…
Daniela Corsini Research Department 7 September 2026 Precious metals, US policies and the Hormuz Strait Document based on information available on 02 09 2026. See the Appendix for analyst certification and important disclosures. GDP, annual growth Impacts…
• Our weekly Commitment of Traders update tracks hedge fund positioning across forex and commodity futures during the week ending 1 September 2026. • Managed-money net longs across 25 major commodity futures reached a four-year high at 2.1 million contracts,…
OCBC forecasts August headline CPI at 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Motor fuel is expected to rise about 2.9% MoM after falling 3.0% in July, adding roughly 0.12 ppt to headline, while shelter is forecast to rise 0.35% MoM and…
• Macro: A strong jobs report and fresh Gulf hostilities pulled markets in opposite directions • Equities: US stocks fell on hawkish payrolls, Europe ended mixed after a weak week, while Asian semiconductors rallied sharply • Digital Assets: Bitcoin slipped…
ING THINK's FX Daily report for September 7, 2026, highlights the dollar's resilience amid geopolitical tensions and high energy prices, with expectations of a modest upward drift. It notes USD/JPY's consolidation around 155, EUR/USD trading in a tight range…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook for September 7, 2026, highlights a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that has elevated Fed rate hike expectations, with markets pricing around a 60% chance of a September hike. Treasury yields rose, and the S&P 500 fell…
Natixis introduces 'programmable sovereignty' and 'coordinated specialisation' as responses to the N-2 problem in AI, where only the US and China achieve full-stack sovereignty. The report argues that N-2 states should pool governance and hard-stack…