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A hot September US CPI briefly lifted short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, but the move reversed within hours as investors focused on a sell-off in debt issued by high-profile AI companies, notably Coreweave's 2032 bonds at 78 cents. ING reads the…
Brent trades near USD 104.70/b and WTI near USD 94.32/b as demand concerns offset Middle East geopolitical risk; the IEA now sees 2026 oil demand falling 2.6m b/d. Gold slumped over 1.3% to USD 4,105/oz after US September core CPI accelerated to 2.6% y/y,…
September US headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 34.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16bp before reversing to about 4.73%, and the 10-year fell below 5.11% as weak risk sentiment drove a haven bid.…
AI demand remains strong, but investors are increasingly focused on valuations, debt financing and returns. CoreWeave's bonds yielding near 15% signal credit scrutiny, though a systemic AI credit crisis is not evident. Hot September US CPI at 3.7% headline…
September US headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, 3.7% YoY, on a 9.1% gasoline surge; core rose 0.3% MoM, 2.6% YoY. October hike pricing rose above 50% before easing to 35%, while the Fed's Collins backed a further hike. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, Nasdaq 1.88%; the 2Y…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m SA and headline CPI 0.65%, both above consensus on core, lifting core y/y to 2.6% and headline to 3.7%. Core goods (+0.3%) and core services ex-housing (+0.4%) show pass-through from commodities and tariffs. PCE is tracking…
Natixis assesses LatAm's uneven El Niño exposure. Peru is most exposed (fishing, agriculture), Colombia highly exposed via drought hitting agriculture and hydropower, risking energy and food inflation. Brazil and Chile are ambiguous. Argentina may gain 1.08%…
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 8% in five sessions, with Kospi down over 12% since the start of October, on worries about AI spending durability, Chinese memory competition, higher-for-longer rates and OpenAI revenue confusion. UBS reads the…
September US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM/2.6% YoY, above the 0.2%/2.5% consensus, with shelter, airfares and used vehicles adding pressure and gasoline up 9.1% MoM. Markets now price a 45% chance of an October Fed hike, up from about 20%. ING still expects a…
September US CPI came in hotter than expected and broad-based: headline rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y, core 0.34% m/m and 2.6% y/y, with gasoline up 9.1% m/m accounting for over half the monthly all-items increase. Natixis says the print revives debate for the…
The investment team keeps a constructive growth view, citing resilient manufacturing and services activity concentrated in AI and technology capex, while housing and rate-sensitive sectors face headwinds. Labor data show a low-hiring, low-firing market.…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
The S&P 500 closed at 7,805.45, down 0.02%, as a 3.04% biotech decline and a 1.80% energy gain cancelled out. Chipmakers fell for a sixth session and J&J dropped 5.3% on a talc charge, while Saudi supply attacks lifted oil. VIX1D jumped 38.86% to 10.72 ahead…
OCBC Research argues the 2026 US midterms are a contest of weakness: Democrats are favoured to win both chambers, with the Democratic-sweep scenario carrying a 62% implied probability on Polymarket, but dissatisfaction with Republicans, not enthusiasm for…
ING expects September US CPI at 0.7% headline and 0.3% core MoM, 0.1pp above consensus, which should reinforce the dollar's floor and support some USD re-strengthening. Markets may modestly raise October Fed hike odds, but pricing above 50% (now 20%) likely…
Brent crude trades back above USD 106 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters and Iran's tanker strikes in Hormuz. Gold holds near USD 4,160 ahead of US September CPI, with Williams signalling one more hike this year and none in 2027. Chipmakers…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…
AI hardware stocks extended losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down a sixth straight session on Chinese DRAM competition and doubts over debt-funded AI capex; CoreWeave bond yield jumped to 15% from 9.625% at issue. The IMF lifted 2026 global…