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Oil's spike above USD 100 following escalating Middle East supply disruptions and a Saudi production slump to 6.23 million b/d pushed global bond yields to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year US Treasury approaching 5% and the 2-year at a cycle high above…
Energy prices, not the ECB's widely anticipated hike, are driving rates markets. With Brent above US$100/bbl, the EUR front-end fully discounts three more ECB hikes to a 3.25% deposit rate by mid-2027, and the 10-year Bund yield has topped 3.5% for the first…
ING expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on Friday, with two more hikes to 1.75% by April 2027. Taiwan's CBC decision is a coin flip between a 12.5bp hike and a hold. China's August activity data should show industrial…
Busier Canadian data releases in the coming week will be led by August’s inflation report on Monday, when we expect headline Consumer Price Index growth to hold at 3% year-over-year. Energy price growth is still elevated, but little changed from July.…
US equities fell about 0.6% as Brent and WTI surged more than 6% to around USD108 and USD103 per barrel, their highest since May, after Iran attacked vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. US August PPI accelerated to 5.4% y/y from 4.8%. Jobless claims fell to…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
Investors are pricing in a higher likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike rates after core CPI inflation rose in August more than economists had estimated. However, a rate hike may not keep the US stock market from climbing higher, says Jonathan…
Westpac reinstated its call for a 25bp RBA hike in November after the National Accounts showed domestic demand more resilient than expected, with stronger household incomes and a large pipeline of data centre and renewable energy investment slowing…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
MUFG flags that Asia FX and rates resilience to higher US Treasury yields may not persist near-term, since rising yields now reflect tighter policy expectations and higher risk premia, with Brent at $109/bbl and US 10-year yields a whisker from 5%. The desk…
The JPY has been the best-performing G10 currency over the past week, extending its rebound after USD/JPY failed to break back above 160.00 at the start of September and broke below support at 155.00. A 25bps BOJ hike is almost fully priced for the upcoming…
Iranian officials warned they are prepared to escalate the conflict if US attacks continue, driving oil prices sharply higher and global bond yields up on inflation concerns. Brent rose 7.7% to US$109/bbl and WTI gained 8.1% to US$104/bbl, while the S&P 500…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
Scotiabank Economics analyzes the ECB's September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.50%, the second hike of the cycle. The ECB's revised baseline forecasts show headline inflation at 3.0/2.5/2.1% for 2026/27/28 and core at…
MUFG forecasts August 2026 US headline CPI at 0.32% MoM (3.3% YoY) and core CPI at 0.23% MoM (2.4% YoY), matching the Bloomberg median consensus. The team assigns roughly 50% probability to a 0.2% core print, 30% to 0.3% and 20% to 0.1%. A 0.2% core outcome…
ING argues that a breach of 5% on the US 10yr Treasury yield looks close to inevitable, driven mainly by higher real yields (2.5%) plus a renewed rise in inflation expectations (2.4%), with fiscal and issuance concerns dominating and higher oil prices adding…
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.5% in a widely anticipated move, with staff projections showing inflation at 3% this year, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Growth forecasts were revised up to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. The meeting carried a slightly…
UBS CIO notes that US Treasury yields rose across maturities on Wednesday after the Treasury's plan to buy back up to USD 6bn of longer-dated debt fell short of market expectations of USD 7-8bn, with higher oil prices amid fresh US-Iran strikes adding to…
Intesa Sanpaolo argues that the war in Iran has caused a smaller-than-expected global crude deficit because non-OPEC supply, demand destruction, and strategic reserve releases have offset lost Hormuz flows, while Europe's gas crisis deepens due to low…