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The ECB raised its main policy rate 25bp to 2.5% and revised up growth and inflation forecasts, with inflation seen peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026; markets priced half a hike in October and more than three additional hikes by mid-2027, a hawkish read despite no…
In the week to 8 September 2026, speculators aggressively bought JPY, flipping a sizeable short to a small net long of 10,800 contracts ahead of the BoJ meeting, while the aggregate dollar long fell 29% to USD 19.5bn, a 14-week low. Copper's net long hit a…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
The dollar enters the week stronger, supported by a hot CPI print that has nearly sealed a 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday and by rising oil after Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline following drone attacks from Iraq. ING favours moderate USD strength, sees…
Australian annual inflation eased from 3.8% in June to 3.5% in July 2026, but trimmed mean inflation held at 3.6%, above the RBA's 2-3% target. Three cash rate rises this year have taken the rate to 4.35%, with CommBank expecting one more 0.25pp increase in…
CommBank expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates 0.25pp this week to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since July 2023, after August core inflation rose 0.3% and markets priced about an 85% chance of a hike. The Bank of England is seen holding at 3.75%,…
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure after drone attacks halts a 5 mb/d export route, putting about 4% of global supply at risk and pushing Brent above $107. Equities fell as AI names unwound and the Fed is expected to hike 25bp on Wednesday. Gold eased…
US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85% to a 3.75-4% band. UMich 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. The 10-year UST yield reached 4.96-4.97%, near a three-year high; the S&P 500 gained 0.9% Friday but…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
Westpac reports the DXY eased from 99.96 to 99.1 over the past month, with the yen cross the dominant driver, as USD/JPY broke through 155 and tested 154. The move is contingent on the Bank of Japan delivering hikes priced through mid-2027 and on authorities…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85%. Brent settled at $106.60, up 9.9% on the week, after the temporary closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from…
US August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, exceeding consensus, driving Fed fund futures to price an 88% probability of a September hike and a 2027 terminal rate of 4.53%. MUFG's rates team calls for hikes in September and December 2026. Despite higher yields,…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
Oil pulled back Friday on reports of planned but postponed Iran-Gulf talks, though Brent still rose 8.7% on the week and WTI settled at $100/bbl. US August CPI accelerated to 0.4% m/m with the annual rate at 3.4%; core was 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y. Futures now…
Global bond yields rose unusually across developed markets. The ECB raised its policy rate 25bp to 2.5%, revised up growth and inflation, with inflation peaking at 3.6% in Q4 2026 before returning to around 2%; markets priced 50% odds of an October hike and…
BNP Paribas expects the FOMC on September 15-16 to deliver the first Fed rate hike since May 2023, joining the ECB and BoJ in tightening. US growth runs near 2.2% y/y, unemployment is falling, core CPI at 0.29% m/m exceeds the bank's 0.2% trigger, and energy…
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Contributors Juan Manuel Herrera, Director +52.55.2299.6675 (Mexico) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com THIS WEEK ’S CONTRIBUTORS: Rodolfo Mitchell, Director of Economic and Sectoral Analysis +52.55.3977.4556 (Mexico)…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…