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Saxo's quick take notes Brent at USD 102, down 1.8% for a fourth session, as Strait of Hormuz shipments reached a six-month high and Saudi Arabia restored its East-West pipeline, though Houthi attacks on Saturday did not reverse the slide. US industrial…
Natixis revises its year-end USDCNY forecast to 6.60 from 6.70 after the pair broke below 6.70, a four-year low, with CNY the best-performing Asian currency year-to-date. A large backlog of unconverted export receipts anchors the currency: the goods FX…
OCBC argues China faces two structurally different external pressures ahead of the 24 September Trump-Xi meeting. The US track stays episodic and deal-driven, with a possible US$30bn reciprocal tariff cut and US LNG purchases under discussion before the 10…
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% with all 12 voters backing the move on elevated inflation, and the September dot plot lifted the 2026 median to 4.1% from 3.8%. The BOJ raised its policy target to 1.25% with seven in favour and two…
OCBC's daily outlook flags a hawkish Fed after a unanimous 25bp hike, with the 10-year UST near 5.00% and markets pricing two more hikes by year-end. Focus shifts to the 24 September Trump-Xi talks, where a framework to cut tariffs on about $30bn of goods and…
New Zealand's production-based GDP rose 0.2% in Q2 2026, beating the RBNZ's flat forecast and leaving the level about 0.5% above its estimate, though retail spending fell 0.9% in August and house prices declined 1.4% year-on-year. Westpac expects the recovery…
BOJ hiked rates 25bp to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, but markets read the meeting as dovish: no faster hike signal, two PM-aligned dissenters favouring a hold, no 50bp hike from Takata or Tamura, and Governor Ueda seeing low probability of back-to-back hikes. USD/JPY…
The yen weakened sharply after the BoJ's September policy update, with USD/JPY hitting 158.05, before rebounding toward 157.00 after reports the BoJ conducted a rate check. MUFG reads this as a signal of limited tolerance for renewed yen weakness near 160.00.…
Fed hike pushes US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0%, with markets pricing ~33bp more tightening by end-2026 and ~85bp by end-2027. Aussie OIS implies a 4.76% cash rate by year-end. BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25%, yet the yen weakened on cautious Ueda guidance and two…
Westpac brings forward its call for the next RBA cash rate hike to September from November, seeing scope for internal Monetary Policy Board members to muster a majority. It flags no change to the pencilled-in start of eventual cuts in August 2027, but says…
Both the Fed (25bp to 3.75%-4.00%) and the BoJ (25bp, 7-2 vote) hiked in September 2026. The Fed's unanimous move versus the BoJ's split vote may lead markets to test the BoJ's commitment, weakening the yen and steepening the JGB curve. The report sees this…
Euro area headline HICP rose to 3.2% y/y in August, the highest since September 2023, driven by a 14% energy inflation surge, while core eased to 2.4% from 2.5% as services fell to 3.0%. MUFG sees no clear second-round effects, but upside risks from gas…
The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote; three members preferred a 25bp hike to 4.00%. The MPC raised its near-term inflation outlook, expecting CPI around 3.75% in 4Q26 versus 3.2% in July, and slightly above 4% in early 2027, citing…
RBC expects headline durable goods orders to rise 0.2% m/m in August, with core orders up 0.7% on computer and electrical equipment tied to the AI buildout. Nonresidential investment, led by data center construction, has added nearly one percentage point to…
Brent fell for a third session toward USD 104/b and WTI near USD 101/b as Saudi Arabia restores its damaged East-West pipeline, targeting roughly half of capacity within days, while some tanker traffic continues through Hormuz. Gold held near USD 4,350/oz…
BoJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, the fastest three-month cadence of its tightening cycle. MUFG judges the hike lacks hawkish impact: it merely confirms the July Outlook baseline rather than responding to new upside risks. Pressure…
The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote, but signaled a November hike is possible if energy prices stay high. ING's base case remains a hold if energy cools, with a cut possible in 2027. The Bank expects inflation to peak just above 4% early…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and volatility split: MOVE fell 3.56% to 80.73 while VIX rose 2.97% to 17.71. The S&P 500 has used 103% of its priced weekly range to the downside with two sessions left. Saxo reads the move…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members preferring a hike. The statement flagged upside inflation risks greater than in July while noting little evidence so far of material second-round effects; November pricing slipped…