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Article | 8 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 8 September 2026 FX RATES September ECB Cheat Sheet: Pick your poison The ECB must decide which risk is the lesser evil: overtightening (and potentially upsetting European bonds) or…
The yen's sharp rally against the dollar is driven by hawkish BoJ expectations and potential GPIF changes, exacerbated by thin US holiday liquidity. While the move appears overdone, near-term risks of further carry trade unwinding make it dangerous to fade.…
ING Think reports that rising oil prices are pushing euro rates higher, but any growth disappointments could quickly trigger a bullish move in rates. The 2-year Bund yield is back to 3%, and the curve shows that only 30bp of the rise is due to inflation…
The article argues that despite broad pessimism about Europe's economy, European households continue to show a strong home bias in their equity investments, with about half of eurozone household equity held in EU-issued stocks, far exceeding Europe's global…
The Japanese yen extended its rebound, pushing USD/JPY below 153.00 for the first time since February, driven by technical breaks, hawkish BoJ repricing, and supportive domestic data. The MoF confirmed record intervention, and the US appears to have pressured…
Copper hit a record high on tight supply and US tariff expectations, while the yen strengthened sharply for a fifth day. Oil held near USD 98 as Hormuz tensions persisted, and gold stayed above USD 4,400. US markets were closed for Labor Day, and European…
The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and much more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred…
Food inflation remained contained in recent quarters, but leading indicators suggest upward pressures are building and we expect food inflation to start rising again towards the end of 2026 and into 2027. Heat and drought records were once again broken across…
Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten…
Declining correlations, rising tracking error, and greater country-level dispersion suggest international markets are delivering increasingly distinct outcomes from US equities. While global equity markets still share a common equity beta, their return paths…
Bond markets are under pressure now, but as yields rise, opportunities for investors to benefit from higher income are opening. • Global bond yields have risen across all maturities, with longer-dated bonds reaching multi-year highs. • A mix of factors is…
Saxo Bank's options brief for September 7, 2026, highlights a market regime characterized by low volatility and bullish sentiment, with the VIX at 14.53 and a contango term structure. Key developments include a strong payrolls report shifting Fed rate hike…
ING expects a single Fed rate hike in September 2026, delaying but not cancelling a cyclical dollar decline projected for spring 2027. EUR/USD is forecast to end 2026 around 1.16, with USD/JPY likely trading in a 155-160 range near term. High yielders and…
ING's September 2026 G10 FX outlook sees the dollar's downtrend delayed by an expected 25bp Fed hike on 16 September, prompting a cut in the year-end EUR/USD forecast. EUR/USD is expected to stay subdued until spring when US inflation approaches 2%. USD/JPY…
OCBC's daily credit snapshot highlights stronger-than-expected US payrolls raising Fed hike odds, with Treasury yields climbing. Credit spreads show mixed movements across IG and HY in the US and Asia. Corporate updates include Fosun's stake sale, Chinese…
The euro area Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% q/q, driven by volatile Irish data. Growth is expected to moderate to 0.2%-0.4% q/q in Q3 and Q4, with 2026 annual growth around 0.9%. Germany's growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 0.9% due to strong H1…
BNP Paribas' weekly economic review highlights accelerating eurozone inflation leading to a likely ECB rate hike, robust US payrolls boosting Fed hike odds, hawkish BOJ signals firming the yen, and mixed global manufacturing with strong services in Europe.…
Snap | 7 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Snap | 7 September 2026 ROMANIA Why Romania is running as a one-engine economy Flat 2Q26 GDP confirms that investment is keeping the Romanian economy afloat, while the rest of the…
The energy shock is back, but its impact more idiosyncratic than before. A lot of energy is getting through Hormuz ‘dark’, and this lowers the importance of a deal to re-open the Strait. Less important ≠ not important, and a deal would…
Daniela Corsini Research Department 7 September 2026 Precious metals, US policies and the Hormuz Strait Document based on information available on 02 09 2026. See the Appendix for analyst certification and important disclosures. GDP, annual growth Impacts…