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Westpac's September 2026 Housing Pulse says Australia's housing correction has broadened and intensified since early 2026. Turnover may be stabilising but at a weak level, with prices still falling. With underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target and…
Global monetary conditions are tightening except in China, with elevated U.S. long-term yields and less offshore dollar support from the Gulf and China. Despite increased risk in the Gulf, crude flows through Hormuz have adapted but remain below pre-war…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…
MUFG flags contagion risk after the 2-year UST yield jumped 72bp in 21 days, the largest such move since March 2023. Forced selling by fast money could trigger liquidation of profitable AI equity and FX carry positions. The dollar has modestly retraced as…
Australia's August employment rose 39.5k but a 0.2ppt participation rebound lifted unemployment to 4.6%, keeping gradual labour-market easing intact. Westpac sees RBA supply assumptions as too weak. The BoJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and may reach 1.5% by mid-2027.…
Markets were subdued as oil and bond yields rose. Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Red Sea oil facilities pushed Brent to $107/bbl and WTI to $94.72, outweighing hints of a US-Iran phased deal. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 2027 during Xi's…
Banxico left its policy rate at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, unanimously, as expected. It kept its call that inflation converges to the 3.0% target in Q4-2027, cutting short-term headline forecasts but raising core. The board stressed that policy…
US 10yr Treasury yields extended their overshoot toward 5.25-5.5%, driven mainly by higher real yields rather than inflation expectations, which remain contained. Weak 5yr and 7yr auctions added momentum, pushing yields above 5.1% and near 5.2%. Bearish…
SMBC's US Rates Strategy Daily argues that cyclical-sector payrolls, which fell in 2024 and 2025, are now accelerating, pointing to a brighter labor market and growth outlook. The firm says this stabilization, alongside median wage growth realigning with…
Natixis reviews Q3-26 transportation credit. BMW's June China profit warning triggered an auto earnings reset; VW added 50,000 job cuts plus four German plant closures, and warned of about €10bn negative impact. Renault won a Moody's upgrade to investment…
Bitcoin has recovered roughly 37% since mid-August and IBIT has taken in about USD 3.76bn over that period, yet the options market is pricing implied volatility of 37.4% against 45.5% realised over 20 sessions, with an IV rank near 11.9. Saxo examines two…
ING reads Czech September confidence as consistent with sub-par expansion. Consumer confidence rose 2.8 points to 105.1, which ING treats largely as a correction; business confidence fell 1.8 points to 98.4, below expectations and the long-run average, led by…
MUFG's FX quant framework argues the 2026 yen appreciation differs from past corrections: the traditional drivers of structural yen weakness have shifted. The US-Japan 10-year nominal yield differential has narrowed to roughly 209bps from about 399bps during…
UBS CIO argues the recent Treasury selloff, which pushed the 10-year yield above 5.1% for the first time since 2007, need not derail markets. The firm expects the Fed to hike once more in December and then hold, with disinflation and favorable base effects…
ING argues US manufacturing is genuinely reviving after three stagnant years, with the ISM production index back above 50 and order books firm. Growth of 1.5-2% annually over three years is forecast, but the headline masks bifurcation: advanced…
Gold trades near USD 4,262/oz, down about 4% this month, pressured by rising Treasury yields, an 18-year-high 10-year real yield of ~2.78%, and a ~1.5% stronger dollar. Yet gold ETFs added almost 50 tonnes in September and Chinese demand topped 1,000 tonnes…
The dollar rally looks stretched after DXY broke above 101.0 on strong US PMIs, higher oil and soft risk sentiment; absent upside US data surprises, ING expects a correction toward 100-100.5. EUR/USD's break below 1.140 is stretched undervaluation, with…
The global fixed income sell-off continues without clear resolution, with the US dollar strengthening as US yields rose across the curve. The 2-year Treasury yield has climbed roughly 60bps this month, approaching the scale of the March move after the…