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MUFG forecasts August 2026 US headline CPI at 0.32% MoM (3.3% YoY) and core CPI at 0.23% MoM (2.4% YoY), matching the Bloomberg median consensus. The team assigns roughly 50% probability to a 0.2% core print, 30% to 0.3% and 20% to 0.1%. A 0.2% core outcome…
Natixis reviews the ECB's September 10, 2026 decision to keep its three key policy rates unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90%, a move widely expected and likely unanimous. The accompanying staff projections revised headline inflation to 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in…
The National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski turned less dovish at his September 2026 press conference than in July, signalling an extended period of stable rates rather than a possible cut, as Middle East conflict-driven energy prices lifted August…
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.5% in a widely anticipated move, with staff projections showing inflation at 3% this year, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Growth forecasts were revised up to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. The meeting carried a slightly…
UBS CIO notes that US Treasury yields rose across maturities on Wednesday after the Treasury's plan to buy back up to USD 6bn of longer-dated debt fell short of market expectations of USD 7-8bn, with higher oil prices amid fresh US-Iran strikes adding to…
Intesa Sanpaolo argues that the war in Iran has caused a smaller-than-expected global crude deficit because non-OPEC supply, demand destruction, and strategic reserve releases have offset lost Hormuz flows, while Europe's gas crisis deepens due to low…
Scotiabank's daily note flags a fully priced 25bp ECB deposit rate hike to 2.40%, with the key question being guidance after an October skip and a possible December move. Brent hovers near US$102/bbl and WTI around US$97, pushing US diesel to its highest…
The Central Bank of Turkey kept its 1-week repo rate at 37% and its interest rate corridor unchanged at 40% upper and 35.5% lower bands, as widely expected. The hold reflects caution over renewed geopolitical tensions that have lifted energy prices, raising…
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5%, the upper end of its neutral range, citing the recent Middle East escalation and oil price surge even as core inflation and survey-based expectations show few second-round effects. Staff projections leave 2026…
Brent crude crossed USD 100 after US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to a 2023 high of 4.845% and pushing the S&P 500 to a third straight decline of 0.48%. Dispersion dominated: Meta rose 6.55% on its Muse…
The ECB raised its three official rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, in line with market expectations. Intesa Sanpaolo argues this was the last…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 FX FX Daily: The hawkish bar is set high for the ECB As the ECB delivers its well-telegraphed 25bp hike, we doubt it will signal enough…
• Macro: US-Iran escalation drove supply-risk fears while weak ADP payrolls and a disappointing Treasury buyback lifted yields. • Equities: US and European equities fell as $100 oil revived inflation fears, while Asia extended the risk-off move. • Volatility:…
Article | 10 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 10 September 2026 RATES SPARK Rates Spark: Oil back above $100 We think the ECB will hike rates, but the path thereafter remains open. Oil breaching $100 and record…
Escalating Middle East tensions dominated markets: the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers and Iran retaliated against a US-used base in Jordan. Brent crude rose 3.4% to USD101.21/bbl and WTI gained 3.2% to USD96.05/bbl. US equities fell for a third…
MUFG reports FX majors stable, with USD/JPY just above 153.00, as markets await the ECB meeting and US CPI. The US Treasury tripled its first larger long-term bond buyback to USD6bn, keeping the dollar about 1% weaker since the 19 August announcement. Brent…
The ECB raised the deposit rate 25bp to 2.50%, the upper end of its neutral estimate, with hawkish projection revisions and forcefuller warnings that Middle East conflict energy inflation is intensifying, making the adverse scenario (oil ~USD 100/bbl, gas…
Brent crude has reclaimed US$100/bbl on escalating US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks, with agricultural prices also higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5bps to 4.84% even after a planned US$6bn long-dated buyback, keeping financial conditions…
J.P. Morgan Global Research brings you the latest updates and analysis of President Trump’s tariff proposals and their economic impact. Since taking office, President Trump has enacted a growing list of tariffs on specific countries and commodities — a move…
A summer cocktail of earnings data, geopolitical headlines, and “policy events” has prompted investors to increasingly scrutinise equity and bond markets. On the one hand, equities have held up, even advanced, on the back of a strong earnings season, which…