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Bank Julius Bär Germany AG marks 20 years in 2026, serving wealthy clients, entrepreneurs and families through ten German locations, backed by the Julius Baer Group's roughly 60 locations in 25 markets. The franchise ties local expertise to cross-border…
OCBC now expects a 25bp Fed hike at the September FOMC to a 3.75-4.00% target range, after US headline CPI held at 3.4% YoY with core easing to 2.4% and gasoline contributing 0.14pp. The ECB delivered its second 2026 hike, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in July, lifting market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed hike above 85%. Brent settled at $106.60, up 9.9% on the week, after the temporary closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from…
US August core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, exceeding consensus, driving Fed fund futures to price an 88% probability of a September hike and a 2027 terminal rate of 4.53%. MUFG's rates team calls for hikes in September and December 2026. Despite higher yields,…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Contributors Juan Manuel Herrera, Director +52.55.2299.6675 (Mexico) juanmanuel.herrera@scotiabank.com THIS WEEK ’S CONTRIBUTORS: Rodolfo Mitchell, Director of Economic and Sectoral Analysis +52.55.3977.4556 (Mexico)…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
The ECB delivered a second 25bp rate hike and Intesa Sanpaolo expects a pause until at least December, given its below-ECB inflation projections and limited second-round effects, though risks are one-sided to the upside. Attention now shifts to next week's…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
ING expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25bp rate hike on 16 September, framing it as a recalibration of policy rather than the start of a new tightening cycle. August payrolls beat all Bloomberg forecasts, headline CPI sits at 3.4% and core CPI ran at…
ING's James Smith argues that markets are pricing a more aggressive hiking cycle than warranted, with investors expecting four more ECB hikes, a similar path from the Bank of England, and no rate cuts for at least four years. He identifies three conditions…
Natixis argues that a hotter-than-expected August CPI report has cemented a 25bp Fed hike at the September meeting, with headline CPI at 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) and core at 0.29% m/m (2.4% y/y), though the firm remains optimistic that inflation will continue to…
The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is on track for a fifth straight weekly gain and a record high, up about 2% on the week and over 36% year-to-date, but gains are increasingly concentrated in energy. Brent crude jumped more than 6% on Thursday after…
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
US August CPI matched consensus at 0.4% MoM/3.4% YoY, but core inflation rose 0.3% MoM (0.290% to three decimals) versus 0.2% expected, well above the 0.17% monthly pace needed to steer annual inflation toward the Fed's 2% target. With Chair Kevin Warsh…
The options market underpriced the week almost everywhere: by the final session the Nasdaq 100 fund had used 91% of its expected band, gold 99% and the bitcoin fund 97%, while the S&P 500 spent 161% and closed below its lower bound. Premium was bid for a…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…
ING expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% at its 17 September 2026 meeting with another 6-3 vote. While the gas and oil price surge means inflation could peak at or above 4% this winter — putting the UK in the Bank's adverse energy…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…