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France's 2027 draft budget targets a 5% deficit via €43bn of measures, but debt still rises to 121.7% of GDP in 2027. A modified budget passed via Article 49.3 is the likely path after difficult negotiations. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread has topped 130bp and…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
The US dollar has gained 1.0-2.4% against major currencies since 17 September, driven by widening interest-rate differentials in favour of the US. EUR/USD fell over 3% from 1.17 to below its 24 June low of 1.1325, with next support at 1.10. Markets price…
The DXY dollar index is testing the year's highs near 101.80 as firm US activity data and ADP payroll signals keep Fed tightening expectations intact, despite a softer August PCE print. EUR/USD is at the year's lows, vulnerable to a deeper French OAT-Bund…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
Brent held near USD 98/b and WTI around USD 90/b as traders questioned whether the Middle East supply recovery can be sustained. Regional crude flows have returned close to pre-war levels, with roughly 23mb/d leaving the Middle East over the past week through…
Citi's Tony Yuen sees oil supply losses partly offset by China cutting about 1.5 million barrels per day of imports, leaving a net loss near 4.5 million bpd. Brent spiked to almost $110 intraday after a strike on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, then eased…
US 10-year Treasury yields closed at 5.2849% after softer August PCE (headline 3.4% y-o-y vs 3.7% consensus; core steady at 3.0%) initially lifted risk appetite, but the move reversed on resilient growth: 2Q GDP revised to 2.2% and ADP payrolls at 90k.…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
Saxo's Q4 outlook keeps risk exposure but demands more from it. With the US 10-year Treasury yield touching 5% on 14 September 2026, US headline inflation at 3.4% and Brent above $100, equity returns must be earned through profit growth and cash flow. AI…
Saxo's Q4 outlook sees three tests for equity resilience: another energy supply shock, post-GFC high sovereign yields with US 10-year near 5%, and AI's internal debate over slowing frontier advancement. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% in September.…
The US dollar remains resilient above 101 on the DXY, supported by elevated US yields despite softer PCE inflation (headline 3.4% y/y). Markets price a December Fed hike. USD/IDR hit resistance at 18,000 and pulled back, but MUFG stays cautious on IDR and…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
UBS CIO argues resilient US growth, with JOLTS at a five-month low of 7.1 million but hiring up and layoffs subdued, should underpin equity gains. Soft consumer confidence in September hit its lowest since 2014, and the 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped…
The report argues that Middle East escalation and higher energy prices are pushing central banks to tighten further, while governments delay fiscal consolidation despite unsustainable public finances. Global growth has held up on AI investment, exports and…
SMBC applies LLM scoring from -1 (dovish) to +1 (hawkish) to all Fed commentary since 2009. FOMC members' latest speeches generally score above 0.5, leaning hawkish, with inflation and labor market topics most frequent. Chair Warsh's July and September press…
The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.25%, about 50bp higher than end-August, driven by higher real yields and Fed rate-hike repricing. A fair-value regression using ISM new orders and USD 2y5y swaption volatility shows yields deviating significantly…
US core PCE inflation rose 0.2% MoM in August, below the 0.3% consensus, with July revised down to 0.1%. The annual rate of 3.0% undershot the 3.3% forecast. Nominal spending rose 0.9% MoM as expected, but household income grew only 0.2%, cutting the savings…