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Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
US September headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, above OCBC's 0.5% call, while core matched at 0.3% MoM; headline reached 3.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY. Motor fuel rose 9.3% MoM and contributed 0.36ppt, over half the monthly increase. Shelter added 0.14ppt; recreation…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m SA and headline CPI 0.65%, both above consensus on core, lifting core y/y to 2.6% and headline to 3.7%. Core goods (+0.3%) and core services ex-housing (+0.4%) show pass-through from commodities and tariffs. PCE is tracking…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m, above the 0.2% consensus. The report argues that shelter inflation stabilizing near 3.2% y/y has removed a key source of disinflationary momentum, leaving core CPI trending sideways and inflation likely to stay elevated near…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
OCBC Research argues the 2026 US midterms are a contest of weakness: Democrats are favoured to win both chambers, with the Democratic-sweep scenario carrying a 62% implied probability on Polymarket, but dissatisfaction with Republicans, not enthusiasm for…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…
SMBC forecasts tomorrow's US CPI at 0.5% headline and 0.2% core. Although 31% of small businesses (net) are raising prices, the historical link between that NFIB series and inflation breadth broke down in 2024, likely due to weakening wage growth and high…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
Scotiabank's Global Week Ahead frames the coming week around US inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings season and central bank communications at the IMF/IIF Annual Meetings in Bangkok. The bank argues the Bank of Canada should fade jobs data and concentrate…
The Fed is expected to hike an additional 80bp through December 2027, per SOFR futures, while PCE inflation reaches 3.4% and core PCE 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with unemployment near 4.2% and payroll growth cooling…
SMBC argues the labor market is balanced at full employment with unemployment near 4.2% and wage growth decelerating, possibly because AI-related job insecurity is suppressing worker bargaining power, though low demand in a low-hiring environment is an…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
August US producer prices were mixed: headline PPI rose 0.4% m/m and core 0.2% m/m, with 10bp upward revisions to July. Wholesaler margins received climbed 4.5% y/y, above the 2010-2019 range that prevailed alongside 2% inflation. Using today's PPI detail,…
AI has not yet caused broad labor-market disruption, but September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus a 90,000 consensus, with the three-month average at 51,000. Job losses are concentrated in Information and Finance, while Education and Health…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, driven by AI-related capital spending. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK, and eurozone, expected to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, with risk of energy inflation broadening. Higher…