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SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in…
Banxico's September minutes showed a unanimous hold at 6.50%, with a dovish tilt: three members saw room for a cut on November 5, while two urged caution. Headline inflation rose to 3.42% y/y, core eased to 3.79%, but services inflation stayed sticky at…
Schwab expects the Fed to raise rates only modestly, with a base case of two more hikes followed by a pause, since today's inflation is driven largely by supply constraints rather than excess demand. The AI capex boom supports growth and earnings, potentially…
TD Economics' October 9, 2026 weekly review flags the September CPI report (Oct 14) as the key event, with consensus at 3.6% y/y headline and 2.5% y/y core. Oil traded in a $88-93/bbl WTI range as markets weighed Hormuz flows, Middle East tensions and…
The global economy stays resilient despite a renewed energy shock that hits Europe harder than the US, with AI, defence and energy-transition capex driving near-trend growth. Inflation remains elevated, keeping the ECB, Fed and BoE hawkish; ABN AMRO expects…
US consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 in October from 48.1, with current conditions dropping to a record-low 44.7, dragged by high motor fuel costs, weak wage growth and job-security worries. Yet spending holds up because top-income households drive about 40-60%…
August PCE revisions cut core inflation by 0.36pp, bringing it closer to target, with three-month annualised momentum near 2%. Payrolls rose just 29k but hiring broadened across sectors and unemployment rose partly on higher participation. GDP growth was…
ABN AMRO raised its 2026 Dutch GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.3%, after H1-26 growth of 0.3% in Q1 and 0.6% q/q in Q2 beat estimates, driven by domestic demand and AI-related exports. The 2027 forecast stays at 1.1%. CPI inflation is seen at 3.2% in 2026…
The Fed is expected to hike an additional 80bp through December 2027, per SOFR futures, while PCE inflation reaches 3.4% and core PCE 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with unemployment near 4.2% and payroll growth cooling…
The USD sits near year-to-date highs with momentum easing. MUFG expects the Fed to hold rates this month absent a big September CPI upside surprise, noting recent USD strength increasingly reflects overseas weakness, notably euro area energy-shock and French…
ABN AMRO argues the global bond sell-off reflects higher expected real neutral rates rather than imminent crisis. Model estimates suggest roughly 90% of German and US yield moves stem from monetary policy expectations, with modest term premia. A 100bp rate…
SMBC argues the labor market is balanced at full employment with unemployment near 4.2% and wage growth decelerating, possibly because AI-related job insecurity is suppressing worker bargaining power, though low demand in a low-hiring environment is an…
MUFG expects Asia FX to trade range-bound in the week ahead, driven by US September CPI, Treasury yields and China activity, inflation and credit data. A softer US inflation print would support high-yielding Asian currencies and help stem equity outflows,…
Scotiabank expects no change in Canadian September employment (0k) and unemployment at 6.5%, versus consensus of +10k. US University of Michigan October sentiment is forecast at 47.0, down from 48.1, with consumers bleak on the outlook yet still spending as…
Natixis's Americas note flags Brazilian election victory for Bolsonaro alongside a surprise Peru hold: BCRP kept its policy rate at 4.25% when a 25bp hike was expected, citing low supercore inflation of 1.8% y/y despite headline at 4.5%. The note also says…
A reported shortfall in OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate near USD 50 billion triggered a 3.4% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia leading declines. Despite the selloff, VIX sits at its three-month median (15.41),…
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for its first weekly gain in three, up 1.7% and 35% year-to-date, with all sectors higher. Brent holds above $100 while diesel and gasoil exceed $200 on >10% refining capacity loss. Gold recovers toward $4,200 as ETF…
Natixis expects September core CPI at 0.19% m/m and headline CPI at 0.6% m/m, both in line with consensus, reinforcing its view that underlying inflation keeps drifting lower. It sees little evidence of reacceleration: tariff and energy shocks are acyclical…
Markets price about three ECB and Fed hikes by late 2027, while ING economists expect one from each plus modest cuts in late 2027-2028. The debate should resolve by spring 2027 as energy effects fade and inflation stays calm. Markets have been right on the…
The options market prices similar earnings moves for six US banks reporting on 13-14 October 2026, but each bank's history differs. Goldman Sachs is priced at about 2.4 times its median reaction, while Wells Fargo is priced slightly below its own. The…