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Westpac IQ's September 2026 Agriculture Report highlights a resilient Australian farm sector with farm GVA growth upgraded to 0.9% for 2026, driven by stronger crop production and robust livestock output. Commodity prices are expected to rise, with the…
Risk sentiment stabilized with US equities closing higher, while oil prices dipped despite geopolitical tensions. OCBC highlights continued Singapore growth momentum with upgraded MAS SPF forecasts, and notes softer US labor data with reduced Fed rate hike…
MUFG's JPY Monthly report for September 2026 highlights the impact of coordinated Japan-US FX intervention (JPY15.4tn since late July) in containing yen weakness, with markets now expecting a BOJ rate hike in September (over 90% priced in) partly due to US…
US dollar softened after weak ADP employment data, but inflation pressures persist due to rising oil and agricultural prices. Asian FX faced mixed moves, with KRW strengthening on robust exports and BNM expected to hold rates. Treasury yields dipped but…
MUFG Research notes the yen's strength as BoJ rate hike expectations build, particularly after Takata's speech hinting at larger hikes. MUFG doubts hikes larger than 25bps but sees 100bps over 12 months as plausible. The bank highlights USD/JPY downside risks…
MUFG reports that gold-USD correlation strengthened amid debasement fears from sticky inflation, energy prices, and US fiscal concerns, though Fed rate-hike signals at Jackson Hole eased fears.
MUFG recommends buying the ATDBCN EUR 3.901 2033 senior bond, citing its rich yield, cheap valuation relative to its own issuer curve and peers, and strong fundamentals of Alimentation Couche-Tard. They expect up to 0.9pt of relative upside over the next…
Fixed Income Commentary September 3, 2026 Debt Research Bonds/Rates 【 Fixed Income Commentary 】 Differences of opinion among central bank policymakers and implications for term premia (original Japanese report issued on September 3, 2026) Key points ■ Recent…
PIMCO expects a K-shaped economic recovery to persist, favoring high quality and senior tranches in asset-based finance over subprime exposure, with subprime stress seen as idiosyncratic and not systemic.
ING argues that rising US long-term yields are driven by inflation and fiscal deficits, with real yields playing a dominant role due to issuance pressure and AI-driven productivity optimism. The base case sees the 10-year Treasury yield testing 5%, while…
UBS CIO discusses the recent rise in global bond yields and its complex impact on currencies, highlighting that not all high yields support currencies. They favor NOK, NZD, GBP, and CNY for their attractive carry and fiscal foundations, expect EURUSD to move…
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% but delivered a hawkish shift, removing language that the rate was appropriate and warning that upside risks to inflation have increased. This opens the door for rate hikes as early as October, with markets…
PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding analyzes the inflation versus wage puzzle, arguing that current above-target inflation is driven by profit margins rather than labor costs. She outlines three scenarios for resolving the price/labor-cost gap, favoring the…
ING believes the dollar is poised to strengthen further due to a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, supported by rising energy prices. The Fed is expected to hike rates in September, which will likely overshadow fiscal concerns. Key levels and…
Middle East tensions drive crude, diesel, and European gas prices sharply higher. Gold slips on rising rate concerns, while soybeans hit multi-year highs on biofuel policy support and weather risks.
ING expects the ECB to raise rates by 25bp next week as an insurance move against energy-driven inflation, but doubts further hikes beyond September because the economy is resilient rather than overheating. They emphasize the importance of avoiding additional…
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting in September 2026, balancing domestic recovery against elevated risks from US tariffs and higher energy prices. RBC expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, with…
The report from OCBC Research on 2 September 2026 highlights a risk-off day in markets, driven by US-Iran conflict escalation and a global bond rout, leading to surging oil prices and higher Treasury yields. Credit spreads widened in IG and HY, while Asia USD…
Follow our podcasts by searching ‘ OCBC Research Insights ’ on Telegram! 1 By Global Markets | 2 September 2026 Daily Treasury Outlook Highlights Global: US equities sold off broadly at the start of September as a deepening global bond rout and…
Scotiabank Economics reports that bonds and stocks are simultaneously cheapening due to renewed Iran hostilities and inflation concerns, while central banks like the Bank of Canada, RBNZ, and RBA are making key decisions amidst mixed economic data. The BoC is…