OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (3 Sep 2026)

Key arguments

• Singapore manufacturing and electronics PMIs improved in August, marking 13th and 15th consecutive months of expansion, with strong new orders and AI-related order books.
• MAS SPF survey upgraded 2026 manufacturing growth forecast to 8.4% from 5.0%, and GDP growth to 5.0% from 3.5%, aligning with OCBC's more optimistic forecasts.
• US ADP employment change came in at 38k versus 48k expected, consistent with a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market, and Fed funds futures reduced rate hike expectations to 37.8bp for the year.
• Australia's GDP grew 0.4% QoQ in 2Q26, above market expectations, driven by household consumption and net exports, marking the first positive net export contribution since 4Q23.
• Oil transit through Strait of Hormuz remained high despite tensions, with Brent and WTI settling lower at USD95.6 and USD91.0 per barrel respectively.
• The Trump administration is preparing broader tariffs on semiconductor imports, with possible relief for companies manufacturing in the US.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Brent and WTI prices, however, edged lower, settling at USD95.6/barrel and USD91.0/barrel, respectively. · short-term
2. The latest MAS SPF survey also showed a median forecast upgrade in the 2026 manufacturing growth from 5.0% to 8.4% (OCBC forecast: ~9%) and GDP growth forecast from 3.5% to 5.0% (OCBC: 5.2%). · 2026
3. Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the Trump administration is preparing broader tariffs on semiconductor imports, although companies manufacturing chips in the US could receive some relief. · short-term