Quarterly Agriculture Report

中文标题

季度农业报告

Westpac / Westpac IQ09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Westpac IQ's September 2026 Agriculture Report highlights a resilient Australian farm sector with farm GVA growth upgraded to 0.9% for 2026, driven by stronger crop production and robust livestock output. Commodity prices are expected to rise, with the Westpac Agriculture Commodity Price Index forecast to average 6.8% higher in 2026, led by firmer wheat, sugar, and beef prices. Trade tensions pose risks, including China's beef safeguard tariff and a potential US lamb tariff investigation. A strong El Niño is a key risk but considered manageable, potentially affecting winter crops and livestock. Cost pressures from energy, fertiliser, and borrowing remain elevated, shaping the outlook.

Institution: Westpac / Westpac IQ
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: GDP · Australian agriculture · Price forecast
Time horizon: 2026 · end-2026, end-2027 · end-2026, 2027 · mid-2027

Key arguments

Upgraded farm GVA growth to 0.9% in 2026 from a 0.8% contraction forecast previously, reflecting stronger crop and livestock production.
Westpac Agriculture Commodity Price Index expected to average 6.8% higher in 2026, with wheat, sugar, and beef prices revised up.
China's beef safeguard quota triggered, lifting tariffs on further shipments to 55% and weighing on export volumes.
Potential US tariffs on lamb imports from 2027 pose a downside risk to Australia's largest lamb market.
El Niño is expected to persist into mid-2027, but impact likely manageable and regionally concentrated.
Elevated energy, fertiliser, and freight costs continue to pressure farm margins.
RBA cash rate expected to remain on hold at 4.35% until 2027, with first cut in August 2027.
Australian dollar expected to end 2026 at US$0.73 and appreciate modestly in 2027.

Key numbers

Farm GVA growth 2026: 0.9%
Westpac Agriculture Commodity Price Index 2026 avg: 6.8%
Wheat price end-2026 (ASW FOB): A$332/t
Canola price end-2026: A$836/t
Sugar price end-2026: US16.3 cents/lb
Beef price end-2026 (EYCI): A$9.49/kg cwt
Beef price end-2027: A$8.58/kg cwt
Lamb price end-2026: around 5% above a year earlier

Main risks

A more severe El Niño event could reduce crop yields and add to inflation pressures.
Prolonged Middle East conflict could keep energy and fertiliser prices elevated, squeezing margins.
US investigation into lamb imports could result in tariffs from 2027, hitting export volumes.
China's beef quota may be filled earlier in 2027 due to front-loaded shipments, causing a sharper decline later.
RBA might hike rates in November if inflation surprises to the upside.
Elevated input costs may reduce planted area and fertiliser use, lowering yields.

Corresponding source evidence

We have revised up our outlook for the farm sector, and now expect farm GVA to grow 0.9% in 2026, from the 0.8% contraction forecast previously. · 2026
We expect ASW prices to end 2026 at A$332/t before easing to A$290/t by end-2027. · end-2026, end-2027
We expect prices to end 2026 at A$836/t and A$726/t by end 2027. · end-2026, end-2027

Conditions / invalidation

Risks are skewed to upside due to El Nino risk.
El Nino threatens cane in key producers, supporting prices.
Supported by strong US demand but constrained by China tariffs.
If El Nino causes drier conditions, affecting yields.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.