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Article | 8 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 8 September 2026 FX RATES September ECB Cheat Sheet: Pick your poison The ECB must decide which risk is the lesser evil: overtightening (and potentially upsetting European bonds) or…
Snap | 8 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Snap | 8 September 2026 TAIWAN Taiwan’s inflation miss adds uncertainty to our September rate hike call Taiwan s inflation came in below expectations in August, easing to 2.04% year-on-year and…
Report | 8 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Report | 8 September 2026 CREDIT Euro Credit Supply: Primary markets reopen early An early reopening of primary markets after the summer slowdown helped lift corporate issuance to €24bn in…
Investment Bank Impact Series 15 The global energy race Barclays Research believes markets may be underestimating the scale of the impact of the next energy demand cycle. 2 3 Foreword Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the Impact Series from Barclays…
Persistent inflation, shifting Federal Reserve expectations and attractive front-end yields continue to shape opportunities for USD cash investors. August began with the market slowly believing we might be on hold, perhaps for the rest of the year. Inflation…
Summary: The JPY rally enters its fifth day in the most persistent broad strengthening move in at least a year. There may be more strength to come for the yen before more significant two-way price action develops. Elsewhere, the broader USD status…
Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to hike interest rates one final time in November to 4.60%, citing persistent inflation and structural economic challenges. Australia's economy is slowing, but underlying inflation remains above target due to supply shocks,…
The yen's sharp rally against the dollar is driven by hawkish BoJ expectations and potential GPIF changes, exacerbated by thin US holiday liquidity. While the move appears overdone, near-term risks of further carry trade unwinding make it dangerous to fade.…
ING Think reports that rising oil prices are pushing euro rates higher, but any growth disappointments could quickly trigger a bullish move in rates. The 2-year Bund yield is back to 3%, and the curve shows that only 30bp of the rise is due to inflation…
The Japanese yen extended its rebound, pushing USD/JPY below 153.00 for the first time since February, driven by technical breaks, hawkish BoJ repricing, and supportive domestic data. The MoF confirmed record intervention, and the US appears to have pressured…
Copper hit a record high on tight supply and US tariff expectations, while the yen strengthened sharply for a fifth day. Oil held near USD 98 as Hormuz tensions persisted, and gold stayed above USD 4,400. US markets were closed for Labor Day, and European…
Westpac has revised its Australian cash rate outlook, making a November 2026 hike the base case, citing resilient households and a data centre boom. GDP growth forecasts are upgraded, but inflation and rate cuts are pushed later.
USD/JPY broke below 155, driven by a combination of US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments urging Japan to shift from reflationary policies, growing BOJ rate hike expectations, revived speculation about GPIF asset allocation changes, and a softening of Fed…
OCBC's daily treasury outlook highlights key market movements and data releases. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have driven Brent crude to a six-week high, while a potential Iran-Oman accord eased some concerns. The Japanese yen strengthened…
MUFG's Asia FX Talk highlights the yen's strengthening below 154 per dollar, its strongest since February, driven by positioning adjustments and BOJ tightening expectations. The report discusses Asian FX divergence, favoring KRW and TWD while cautioning on…
1 08 September 2026 Middle East Daily 08 September 2026 COMMODITIES / ENERGY Oil heads for strong weekly gain as US intensifies pressure on Iran. Brent held near USD 100/b, and WTI approaching USD 93/b, as traders weighed renewed US- Iran tensions…
UBS CIO revises its Fed forecast to two rate hikes in 2026 (September and December) following strong August payrolls and hawkish signals, while maintaining a constructive view on equities and adjusting bond and currency strategies.
The global economy remains resilient in the face of a succession of shocks. While the energy shock is back with a vengeance, its effects are more idiosyncratic now, and much more impactful for Europe than the US. Meanwhile, a capex troika centred…
Despite robust economic growth, India's contribution to global GDP has increased to 8.2% by 2025, yet the emergence of a sizeable consumer middle class is hampered by structural labor market weaknesses. Most employment is informal and low-value-added, and key…
Growth is likely to stay resilient despite the resurgent energy shock, but inflation has become a worry. The longer high energy prices persist, the bigger the risk of second round effects… and the bigger the risk the ECB might have to tighten…