Markets Focus · Third attempt finally takes USD/JPY below 155
中文标题
市场焦点 · 第三次尝试终于使美元/日元跌破155
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
USD/JPY broke below 155, driven by a combination of US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments urging Japan to shift from reflationary policies, growing BOJ rate hike expectations, revived speculation about GPIF asset allocation changes, and a softening of Fed rate hike expectations. Despite the break, the report cautions that it may be premature to call a definitive trend reversal.
- Institution
- MUFG
- Published
- 09/08/2026
- Research topic
- US Dollar (DXY) · USD/JPY · Inflation
- Time horizon
- next week
Key arguments
- Bessent's comments around the G20 and reported frustration with Japan's fiscal/monetary policy provided a catalyst for yen buying.
- Expectations of BOJ accelerating rate hikes, supported by Governor Ueda's and board member Takata's hawkish remarks, boosted the yen.
- Speculation about GPIF considering changes to its asset allocation, given its large asset base, added further yen support.
- Fed rate hike expectations softened after mixed employment data and Trump's criticism, weakening the dollar broadly.
- Technically, USD/JPY breaking below 155 and the 38.2% retracement could lead to further declines, but the broader narrative may not have shifted yet.
Key numbers
- USD/JPY current level
- below 154.50
- FY27 budget requests
- JPY143tn
- GPIF asset size
- JPY300tn
- Nonfarm payrolls change (Aug)
- +162,000 MoM
- Wage growth YoY
- 3.1%
Main risks
- Risk of further intervention by Japanese authorities if yen strengthening overshoots.
- US CPI data could trigger a rebound in dollar if inflation remains hot, leading to Fed hiking expectations.
- Prolonged uncertainty regarding GPIF policy changes could reverse yen strength.
- Technical breakdown may be false if USD/JPY quickly recovers above 155.
Corresponding source evidence
) The USD/JPY fell below the lower end of our forecast range of 155 on 7 September.
For example, at his post -G20 press conference on 1 September, Bessent said Japan should move away from its reflationary policies.
On 31 August, he also said in a media interview that he was confident the Japanese government and BOJ would take steps that would lead to a stronger yen.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by MUFG on 09/08/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction