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The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
The Fed raised the fed funds target 25bp by unanimous vote; the median dot implies one more hike in 2026 to 4.00-4.25% and none in 2027. Markets were disappointed the dot plot was not more forceful. Eight members wanted another 2027 hike versus six seeing no…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25bp to 3.75-4%, a unanimous decision, and its projections point to one more hike this year before holding at 4.125% through 2027. ING's base case is 'one and done' given labour slack, 3% wage growth and expected oil…
US retail sales rose 1.2% MoM in August versus 0.8% expected, and the control group gained 1.4% versus 0.5% consensus, rebounding after an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime Day shifted June and July patterns. Internet sales rose 2.6% MoM. ING says spending is…
The FOMC is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, a test of Chair Kevin Warsh's consensus-building. Oil strength from the US-Iran conflict adds near-term inflation pressure, but resilient growth, robust earnings and AI investment…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
One S&P 500 session now costs the same as 30 days of volatility, with three tenors within 0.07 points. The S&P 500 has used 70% of its weekly expected move, the Nasdaq 100 fund 79%, and the VIX 121%, all before the Federal Reserve decision priced at a ~94%…
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.1% month-on-month in July, matching June's 0.1% decline and leaving output broadly flat versus a year earlier. Capital goods and energy held up, but non-durable consumer goods were sharply weaker. Manufacturing is…
UK August CPI rose to 3.1%, 25bp above the BoE's July projection, driven by energy while core (2.6%) and services (3.4%) stayed stable. With Brent near $110 and gas at multi-year highs, MUFG expects a hawkish hold at the September BoE meeting and a signal…
US equities fell for a second session as a crude oil surge and the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 5% delivered a double shock to risk sentiment before the FOMC. Brent settled at USD108.75/bbl (+2.9%) and WTI at USD105.83/bbl (+4.4%), the highest closes…
Schroders keeps a pro-cyclical stance for September 2026, seeing low US recession risk and resilient earnings but rising, increasingly correlated risks. It stays positive on equities, commodities and government bonds, is tactically long the US 10-year, holds…
Markets fully price a consensus 25bp Fed hike to 4.0%, with 52bp by year-end and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would hit the dollar hard via front-end repricing and a Treasury selloff, but the Fed is mindful of that risk, keeping a hold unlikely and arguing…
UK headline inflation edged up to 3.1% in August on a 7% monthly rise in fuel costs. ING expects inflation to reach 3.4% next month and peak around 3.7% early next year if the household energy cap rises by circa 25% in January. However, food inflation fell to…
Brent retreated toward USD 107/b and WTI traded near USD 104/b after a supply-driven rally looked technically stretched, with API data showing US crude inventories up 7.1mb plus gasoline and distillate builds. Supply risks persist: Saudi Arabia's East-West…
Markets brace for an almost certain 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% after hot core CPI. The 10-year Treasury briefly breached 5%, a 2007 high, before easing; the 2-year hit 4.686%. Equities fell as oil and yields rose. Brent settled near $109, up ~20% in…
The Fed raised its policy rate 25bp in September, and the SEP signals another hike this year and possibly one more in 2027 if inflation does not cool quickly. Core PCE has reaccelerated above 3% y/y, while headline inflation is elevated by energy. Chair Warsh…
Markets had a quiet but nervous overnight session. Brent settled 2.7% higher near US$108.5/bbl as the Saudi East-West pipeline closure increasingly looks likely to last weeks, not days, and Saudi crude cargo cancellations were reported at a key port. Higher…