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US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Eurozone headline inflation rose to a three-year high of 3.8% y/y in September, above both ABN AMRO and consensus forecasts, driven mainly by a jump in energy to 18.8% y/y. Core inflation was stable at 2.5%, with services at 3.2% and goods inflation slightly…
BNP Paribas published its Eco Week markets overview dated 5 October 2026, authored by Tarik Rharrab of the Data and Analytics Team. The available article body contains only publication navigation, editorial placeholders and research-department descriptions;…
Eurozone September flash inflation surprised upside at 3.8% y/y on energy and services; French OAT yield surpassed 4.9% and HICP hit 3.4%. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualised, but September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment climbed to 4.2%;…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
The average S&P 500 stock fell three times the index on Wednesday but led Thursday, with the equal-weight fund up 0.47% versus the cap-weighted fund's 0.18%. Implied correlation rose 5.10% to 11.74, above 55 of 60 sessions, as dispersion eased to 35.57. VIX…
This weekly calendar from Intesa Sanpaolo's research department lists macroeconomic releases and central bank events for October 5-9, 2026. Highlights include final September services PMIs for the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and the UK, US ISM…
In the week starting 2 October 2026, ING expects Poland's NBP to leave its reference rate at 3.75% on 7 October as headline CPI reached 4.0% YoY, with fuel and household energy adding around 2.5pp. Hungary's Wednesday inflation is seen rising strongly, fuel…
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% yoy in September, above Natixis's 3.5% forecast and up from 3.2% in August. Core inflation matched the 2.5% forecast, rising from 2.4%. Energy contributed the most at 1.70pp (18.82% yoy),…
Natixis finds that extensive Chinese policy support has lowered financing costs but failed to reignite demand, confidence or profitable investment. Corporate health remained below pre-pandemic levels through H1 2026, though mild stabilization emerged. The…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Italy's gross government issuance at EUR 546bn in 2026, up from an estimated EUR 547bn in 2025, with net issuance projected at EUR 101bn versus EUR 139bn in 2025. Redemptions are seen at EUR 445bn, leaving a gross-to-redemption gap.…
Natixis argues China has no incentive to join any coordinated AI slowdown. US systems' share of OpenRouter tokens fell from about 70% a year ago to near 30%, so a pause would freeze a hierarchy Beijing rejects. China's cheaper power and easier grid…
A French government bond sell-off on 1 October 2026 broke the narrative of ever-rising short-term rates, prompting markets to question whether the ECB and Fed are nearing policy errors. EUR/USD broke to new 2026 lows and is biased toward 1.1100/1.10; DXY hit…
US payrolls loom with consensus near 90,000 after 162,000 in August. Oil jumped as the US deploys a third carrier group and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, reviving US-Iran conflict fears. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened to a 14-year high of…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
Brent crude jumped over 4% to close at USD 102.31/b on news of additional US troop deployments to the Middle East, China's suspension of refined fuel exports, and another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose about USD 20 to USD 4,177.66/oz as…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The dollar held firm ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, with DXY briefly touching its highest since May 2025 near 102.00 as elevated Treasury yields and resilient data sustained demand. Asia FX weakened broadly despite constructive regional activity. Payrolls are…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…