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The US dollar may stabilize around 102.0 in DXY, but risks are skewed to the upside. The September FOMC minutes are unlikely to surprise dovishly given the hawkish dot plot, while soft post-meeting data sets a high bar for a positive dollar reaction. Oil…
The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
German industrial production rebounded 2% month-on-month in August after a 1.2% July decline and rose 2.3% year-on-year, driven by construction and manufacturing while autos lagged on summer holidays. The heatwave's economic damage proved milder than feared.…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
Brent is holding above $100 despite Middle East exports recovering near pre-war levels, as EIA now projects non-OPEC+ supply outside the region to fall about 0.5 mb/d in 2026 before rebounding 3.4 mb/d in 2027. CBA's John Oh cites Hormuz tanker-attack risk…
The oil market is caught between improving Persian Gulf supply and continued attacks on ships, with ICE Brent dipping toward $97/bbl before settling above $100/bbl. Middle distillates have weakened as the ICE gasoil crack fell to about $73/bbl from over…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
MUFG expects the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, but views the pause as temporary. Higher oil prices, weather-related risks and resilient domestic demand keep upside inflation pressures elevated into 2027. MUFG forecasts two 25bp hikes in…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50% and shifted to "calibrated tightening", but MUFG judges the move not hawkish enough to justify current INR front-end pricing (1y OIS 6.26%, 2y 6.45%). MUFG forecasts one more hike to 5.75% by Feb 2027, with risk of…
The Nasdaq rose over 1% to a record high while the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 24-year high. Market breadth has narrowed, with fewer US stocks above key moving averages and the equal-weighted S&P 500 lagging. UBS CIO retains strong conviction in AI…
Canadian exports rose 2.5% in August, a sixth straight monthly surplus, aided by tariff front-running. Imports fell 2.0%, led by autos and gold. The US deficit widened to US$105bn on a 4.3% import surge. Canada's estimated effective tariff rate rose to 4.6%,…
Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in August 2026, the largest since May 2022, as energy exports rose 4.7% and U.S. buyers front-ran new 50% tariffs imposed August 22. Trade to non-U.S. destinations rose 40% year-over-year versus 24%…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, with AI and capital goods investment driving the cycle. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK and Eurozone, and is expected to peak in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, though energy inflation may spread.…
Czech September CPI rose to 2.5% y/y, with core near 3.1% and services at 4.6% y/y. Fuel, regulated energy and a weaker koruna are lifting goods prices; food disinflation is seen reversing. ING assigns an 80% probability to a November CNB hike and 30% to a…
France faces rising bond market stress from a toxic mix of high debt, political paralysis, weak growth and limited revenue room. The government proposes €54bn (1.7% of GDP) fiscal consolidation for 2027, targeting a 5% deficit. ABN AMRO's base case assumes…
August heat and drought hit Hungarian retail sales, which rose just 2.4% year-on-year, below ING's 4.2% estimate, while industrial output jumped 8.7% year-on-year on a working-day-adjusted basis, the strongest since late 2022. ING keeps its 2026 industrial…