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State Street expects range-bound G10 FX into September, with the US dollar likely to retrace higher over one to two months despite ranking last in its model. Growth outside the US beat depressed expectations, but energy risks persist. The Japanese yen is…
The FOMC raised the fed funds rate 25bp in September to a 3.875% midpoint, matching expectations, and the updated dot plot points to at least one more hike by year-end. Revised projections show PCE inflation slowing from 3.7%yr in 2026 to 2.0%yr by 2029, with…
The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
Markets fully price a consensus 25bp Fed hike to 4.0%, with 52bp by year-end and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would hit the dollar hard via front-end repricing and a Treasury selloff, but the Fed is mindful of that risk, keeping a hold unlikely and arguing…
Markets had a quiet but nervous overnight session. Brent settled 2.7% higher near US$108.5/bbl as the Saudi East-West pipeline closure increasingly looks likely to last weeks, not days, and Saudi crude cargo cancellations were reported at a key port. Higher…
Oil is higher but modest, with Brent at US$106 and WTI at US$102, pressing long-end bond yields on inflation fears. Markets price each of the Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE and BoJ for roughly 50bps of hikes by year-end. Equities slip broadly. Canadian existing home…
Citi's Supply Chain Financing report finds global trade durable through 2025 tariff shocks. Payment flows stayed strong; shipping normalized. From 2019-2024, North & East Asia exports shifted to emerging markets (Latin America +59%, Middle East & Africa +52%,…
Markets opened the week risk-off after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure, reportedly lasting weeks, and AI leaders' calls to slow development; President Trump's pushback against AI controls limited US equity losses. Brent rose 1.6% to $106.3/bbl and…
Oil gained roughly 2–3% after a Saudi pipeline shutdown and postponed Middle East talks with Iran, pressuring stocks and bonds. Equities fell across major indexes, with Nasdaq down about 1.5%. US Treasury yields were little changed after Friday's CPI-driven…
MUFG keeps a constructive ringgit view despite higher oil prices and rising subsidy costs. Malaysia's electronics trade surplus offsets the larger oil import bill, inflation near 1.8% and anchored expectations let Bank Negara hold at 2.75%, and returning…
The US dollar has strengthened only modestly ahead of this week's FOMC meeting, with the dollar index up 0.3% and back above its 200-day moving average near 99.150. Markets now price 22bps of hikes, up from 15bps a week ago, after August core CPI rose 0.3%…
Westpac reports the DXY eased from 99.96 to 99.1 over the past month, with the yen cross the dominant driver, as USD/JPY broke through 155 and tested 154. The move is contingent on the Bank of Japan delivering hikes priced through mid-2027 and on authorities…
Westpac upgraded its June quarter New Zealand GDP forecast to +0.2% from a previous -0.1%, lifting annual growth to 2.4% as a weak year-earlier quarter drops out. Seasonal distortions may subtract around 0.3ppts, implying a healthier 0.5% underlying pace. The…
Oil pulled back Friday on reports of planned but postponed Iran-Gulf talks, though Brent still rose 8.7% on the week and WTI settled at $100/bbl. US August CPI accelerated to 0.4% m/m with the annual rate at 3.4%; core was 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y. Futures now…
Westpac reinstates a November RBA rate hike to 4.6% as the base case, citing firmer growth and persistent inflation. GDP trough upgraded to 1.5%yr in 2026. Three 25bp cuts from August 2027 still expected, leaving the whole cash rate path 25bps higher. NZ Q2…
GLOBAL ECONOMICS Visit our website at scotiabank.com/economics | Follow us on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics | Contact us by email at scotia.economics@scotiabank.com Contributors Derek Holt VP & Head of Capital Markets Economics Scotiabank Economics 416.863.7707…
Scotiabank's daily note argues that the August US CPI release could determine whether the FOMC hikes in September, with Scotia's house estimate for core CPI at 0.3% m/m versus consensus of 0.2%. The desk interprets the recent oil-driven price pressure as a…
Westpac reinstated its call for a 25bp RBA hike in November after the National Accounts showed domestic demand more resilient than expected, with stronger household incomes and a large pipeline of data centre and renewable energy investment slowing…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…