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The global FX market is being reshaped by the worst bond sell-off in decades. The 10-year UST yield reached 5.34%, a 24-year high, after its sharpest quarterly rise in 32 years. This lifted the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1259 after touching 1.1215, its lowest…
US nonfarm payrolls rose only 29k in September versus 90k expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% and participation rose to 61.8%. Natixis reads a stable but not inflationary labor market, with wage growth of just 13bps m/m, reducing urgency…
Natixis reports September US nonfarm payrolls rose just 29k, below the 90k expectation and August's revised 133k, pulling the three-month average to 51k. Unemployment edged up to 4.2% as participation improved, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% m/m…
Natixis LATAM Macro Insights, based on late-September meetings with two Banxico board members, reports that at its September 24 meeting Banxico kept its policy rate at 6.50% and signaled it would not respond mechanically to Federal Reserve actions amid rising…
Natixis finds that extensive Chinese policy support has lowered financing costs but failed to reignite demand, confidence or profitable investment. Corporate health remained below pre-pandemic levels through H1 2026, though mild stabilization emerged. The…
US payrolls loom with consensus near 90,000 after 162,000 in August. Oil jumped as the US deploys a third carrier group and 10,000 troops to the Middle East, reviving US-Iran conflict fears. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened to a 14-year high of…
The RBI is widely expected to begin tightening with a 25bp hike to 5.5%, as rising oil and food prices push CPI above target. Philippine inflation is seen rising to 6.8% YoY on fuel and El Niño food pressures. Japan's data point to weak consumption and a…
Westpac's Cliff Notes flags a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, with a follow-up in November viewed as likely if Middle East conflict does not resolve. Underlying CPI rose 0.2% m/m (3.4% y/y). US PCE eased but core stays at 3.0% y/y; Japan's Tankan supports a possible…
Brent crude jumped over 4% to close at USD 102.31/b on news of additional US troop deployments to the Middle East, China's suspension of refined fuel exports, and another tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold rose about USD 20 to USD 4,177.66/oz as…
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The dollar held firm ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, with DXY briefly touching its highest since May 2025 near 102.00 as elevated Treasury yields and resilient data sustained demand. Asia FX weakened broadly despite constructive regional activity. Payrolls are…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
EURUSD hit new one-year lows, driven mainly by broad USD strength, while the euro has only begun to reflect Eurozone sovereign stress. The France-Germany 10-year yield spread widened above 130bp from roughly 85bp in early September. French 10-year yields…
Global markets in late September 2026 show a synchronized hawkish pivot: the FOMC, ECB and BoJ have all hiked rates, pushing UST 10Y to a 2026 high of 5.24%, mostly from higher real yields. OCBC adds a 25bp Fed hike in 4Q2026, one BoE hike by year-end, two…
Standard Chartered maps the Egypt-Japan corridor as a manufacturing, logistics and clean energy story. Egypt's Suez Canal Economic Zone attracted 117 new projects worth over USD7bn in 2025, while Nissan committed USD45m to vehicle production in 2026. Egypt…
US August core PCE was softer than expected (0.2% MoM, 3.0% YoY) on lower revisions, annualizing at 2.0%, though German September inflation hit a two-year high of 3.3%. US 2-10 yield curve steepened to 40bp as 10-year yields touched post-GFC highs above…
Brent held near USD 98/b and WTI around USD 90/b as traders questioned whether the Middle East supply recovery can be sustained. Regional crude flows have returned close to pre-war levels, with roughly 23mb/d leaving the Middle East over the past week through…
Citi's Tony Yuen sees oil supply losses partly offset by China cutting about 1.5 million barrels per day of imports, leaving a net loss near 4.5 million bpd. Brent spiked to almost $110 intraday after a strike on Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, then eased…