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US equities closed mixed: S&P flat, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, with memory-chip and semiconductor names down 4-10% after China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent rose 1.8% to USD106.7/bbl and WTI 2.0% to USD93.7/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing…
The RBI's new FX measures, including a 20% FERR on large USD/INR forwards, helped spot INR strengthen 1% in a day. But pressure moved to forward premia, wider onshore-offshore spreads and higher bond yields. MUFG expects USD/INR to rise gradually to 97.50 by…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated near 3% in the week of October 13, with an intraday range of 2.965%-3.115%. The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate, a proxy for terminal-rate expectations, is seen holding around 2.5%, the top of the BoJ's…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
Turkey's current account posted a USD 4.05bn surplus in August on seasonal tourism and a narrower energy-driven goods deficit. MUFG expects the CBRT to look through this seasonal improvement at its 22 October meeting, as Brent holds above USD 100/b and FX…
BNP Paribas' 9 October 2026 markets overview shows Brent at $104.89 (+72.4% YTD) and gold at $4,185. Bund 10Y yields rose 59.8bp YTD to 3.46%, while OAT 10Y reached 4.76%, widening the OAT-Bund spread 54.5bp over one month. US 10Y Treasuries yielded 5.24%,…
Barclays' Green Budget chapter projects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027 before returning to 2% in 2028. Real GDP growth slows from 1.4% in 2026 to 1.2% in 2027, with unemployment rising to 5.7% and real earnings falling in both years.…
The US dollar's shallow consolidation leaves its rally intact ahead of Wednesday's September US CPI. USDJPY has risen above its 200-day moving average near 158.50, while EURUSD presses below 1.1200 on elevated German-French 10-year yield spreads at 141bp.…
ING expects EUR/USD to stay offered in a 1.10-1.15 range into year-end as French debt concerns echo the 2018 Italian episode rather than a Greek-style default. Modest fiscal consolidation should cap the OAT-Bund spread sell-off. A hawkish September Fed and…
ING's October 2026 Asia FX outlook sees more two-way risk in USD/CNY after the pair stabilised near 6.70, with 6.67 flagged as the likely lower end of this year's range and a 6.67-6.92 band for 2026. The won stays resilient on a broadening chip export boom,…
State Street expects the Bank of Canada to hold in October after September employment fell 68k and unemployment rose to 6.5%, and favors a March BoJ hike over December or January. US services ISM stayed solid at 54.9 while consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 near…
Long-term government bond yields are near multi-year highs across major economies, accompanied by elevated volatility. Amundi attributes the move to persistent inflation, monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions affecting energy…
ING argues EUR/USD stays pressured in a new 1.10-1.15 range over three to six months, as solid US growth and a hawkish Fed combine with French budget unrest; the French episode is likened to Italy's 2018 election-driven debt stress rather than Greece's 2012…
Natixis expects Thailand's GDP growth to slow to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, after Q2 2026 came in at 1.9% YoY versus 2.8% in Q1. An Iran-war energy shock worsens terms of trade and raises jet fuel costs, hurting long-haul tourism, while soft Chinese…
Spain's PM dissolved both houses of Parliament on 5 October 2026, calling early elections for 29 November. Natixis sees a likely shift from left to right, with a PP-led coalition including Vox. Spanish fundamentals remain solid, with growth above the euro…
A weekend attack on Riyadh airport briefly pushed Brent above USD 105.50 before it reversed to near USD 103.70, as resilient crude flows, Russia's partial diesel export ban lift and an energy ceasefire offset tensions. Gold stalled above USD 4,200 at USD…
Natixis argues that surging AI data center electricity demand, set to more than double globally from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030, will strain US, European and Japanese power infrastructure, where data centers could absorb 48%, 28% and 66% of…
OCBC's weekly macro view sees global demand stabilising unevenly, led by AI investment. The Fed keeps further rate hikes in play, supporting the USD but capping breakout odds, while French fiscal fears cap EUR upside. Indonesia's headline CPI rose to 3.3% YoY…
OCBC expects US September headline CPI at 0.6% MoM on fuel, with core at 0.2%, while Singapore's advance 3Q26 GDP is seen at 5.7% YoY and MAS is anticipated to steepen the S$NEER slope by 25bps to 1.5%. The 10-year UST yield closed at 5.243% and the S&P 500…