Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
August US CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.29% m/m and 2.4% y/y. This data is sufficient to nudge the Fed into a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, though it does not signal a…
The options market underpriced the week almost everywhere: by the final session the Nasdaq 100 fund had used 91% of its expected band, gold 99% and the bitcoin fund 97%, while the S&P 500 spent 161% and closed below its lower bound. Premium was bid for a…
Natixis estimates euro area R-star at 2.2%, marginally below the ECB deposit rate of 2.5%, implying a only modestly restrictive policy stance. The report argues that real interest rates and R-star share common global drivers - productivity, demographics, the…
The G7 foreign exchange market is being driven by three converging forces: a yen surge to a seven-month high on expected BOJ tightening, Brent crude above $100 per barrel following US-Iran military escalation, and a synchronized global tightening cycle with…
The 14-18 September 2026 calendar is dominated by three G10 central bank decisions: the FOMC is expected to leave the target fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the Bank of England is forecast to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the Bank of Japan is expected…
Global bond yields surged on September 10, 2026, after the ECB delivered a hawkish 25-bp hike and raised its 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts, sending the German 2-year yield up 16 bp—its largest front-end jump in over 18 months—while crude oil prices spiked…
Natixis expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate unchanged at its 17 September 2026 meeting with a 6-to-3 voting split, as headline CPI rose to 2.9% on energy effects while core inflation held at 2.6% and private-sector regular pay growth cooled to 2.8%.…
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% at its 18 September meeting, with markets nearly pricing in another 25bp hike by year-end. Short-dated JPY rates have surged since July, partly driven by US Treasury FX…
The yen strengthened sharply as markets moved to fully price a Bank of Japan rate hike next week and a strong chance of another by year-end, prompting investors to avoid short-yen positions. The move lifted EUR/USD, but higher energy prices later pressured…
Brent crude has surged above USD 107/b and WTI trades near USD 102/b as Houthi advances toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait compound existing threats to Saudi and wider Gulf exports, with Riyadh's August output falling 1.9mb/d to 6.24mb/d, the lowest since 1990.…
Oil's spike above USD 100 following escalating Middle East supply disruptions and a Saudi production slump to 6.23 million b/d pushed global bond yields to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year US Treasury approaching 5% and the 2-year at a cycle high above…
ING expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on Friday, with two more hikes to 1.75% by April 2027. Taiwan's CBC decision is a coin flip between a 12.5bp hike and a hold. China's August activity data should show industrial…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
MUFG flags that Asia FX and rates resilience to higher US Treasury yields may not persist near-term, since rising yields now reflect tighter policy expectations and higher risk premia, with Brent at $109/bbl and US 10-year yields a whisker from 5%. The desk…
The JPY has been the best-performing G10 currency over the past week, extending its rebound after USD/JPY failed to break back above 160.00 at the start of September and broke below support at 155.00. A 25bps BOJ hike is almost fully priced for the upcoming…
Iranian officials warned they are prepared to escalate the conflict if US attacks continue, driving oil prices sharply higher and global bond yields up on inflation concerns. Brent rose 7.7% to US$109/bbl and WTI gained 8.1% to US$104/bbl, while the S&P 500…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
Natixis analyzes Mexico's proposed 2027 budget, which reduces the public sector financing requirement to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026, with gross debt rising modestly to 55% of GDP. Revenues are set to increase to 23.0% of GDP on stricter tax deduction…